Stats Are For Losers - 49ers

OFFENSES                                                                DEFENSES

So, I was pretty surprised at just how efficient The 49ers passing offense can be. Between both Smith and Kaepernick, 49ers QBs are completing 69% of their passes. Likewise, these guys haven't turned it over much. It seems like Harbaugh teaches them to take the sack rather than throw a pick. San Francisco is a great QB-pressure team defensively, but their own QBs are actually taking more sacks than the defense is making.

Overall, The Patriots offense is vastly superior to The 49ers offense, but The 9ers can actually compete with some of the numbers. Still, Brady is probably going to convert more 3rd downs, score more TDs, and take less sacks. The San Francisco Defense will need to level the playing field with their disruptive pass rush.

When I look at these numbers, certain priorities jump out to me. First of all, stopping the San Francisco offense starts with stopping the running game. Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick will gain some yards on the ground, but if the defense can force passing situations on 3rd downs we should be okay. Its obvious that San Francisco completes a lot passes, but they don't convert too many 3rd downs. This tells me that the 49er QBs are completing a lot of useless check-downs. As long as we are able to limit YAC, we should be able to get off the field on 3rd down.

On the other side of the ball, we're looking at a stalemate. #1 Offense vs. #1 Defense. The Patriots are converting over 50% of their 3rd downs, but it will be hard to keep that pace against a defense that holds teams to a 31% conversion rate. This is a big key to the game. How will Brady fare on 3rd down? Will The Patriots be able to stay on down and distance schedule and keep the sticks moving?

The X-factor in this one has to be turnovers. Although San Francisco has a dominant defense, New England is better at forcing turnovers. New England really needs to avoid turning it over because San Francisco is good enough without the benefit of many turnovers. To me, it's more important to avoid turnovers than it is to force them. San Francisco's offense lacks the consistency to keep up with New England on a level playing field, so we can't afford to give them extra possessions.

Overall, I was surprised with some of San Fran's offensive numbers, but some of them are deceptive. The 49ers can run the ball very well, but they have trouble converting on 3rd down passing situations. The Patriots Defense is going to need to be aggressive on 1st and 2nd down to try and force difficult 3rd downs. Likewise, The Pats offense needs to stay on schedule to avoid 3rd and longs where the 49er DL can pin their ears back. If we do this, we should win the game.