Carter - "Rehab Ahead of Schedule"

ESPN is reporting that DE Andre Carter is hopeful to return to the Patriots next season. Carter's agent said that Carter is hopeful to return to the Patriots next season because, "he wanted to go to [a contender] where he would play in a system where he had a chance to go the Pro Bowl, so everything was perfect until the injury."

I think it is extremely hard to argue that Andre Carter did not exceed expectations with his double-digit sack numbers, and he played at a Pro Bowl level. If he can duplicate his effectiveness while staying healthy, then I think he will once again contend for All-Pro status.  He played well against the pass and well against the run. His career was revitalized last season under Bill Belichick. If his health is as good as is being reported, then I see no reason why he would want to go anywhere else.

For a Patriots business point of view, I think that it is a tough situation. The contract dispute will likely be in terms of years. Having been selected to the Pro Bowl, I do think that Andre Carter can expect a pay raise from his previous 1-year contract of $1.75m (base) with $500k (signing bonus) and $500k (incentives).  However, he should expect a bigger incentive package, not more guaranteed money. Coming off an injury, this is the safest way for the Patriots to sign him.  Carter is really looking for security in years, and that might be a hard thing to give an aging lineman if the money is guaranteed.

Carter's agent also said, "We would like to think they'd be interested in keeping him on a long-term basis, but it takes two to dance." He added, "He's in good shape, ahead on his rehab...It's not the kind of injury like a lower back or knee, where he's not going to be able to come back 100%. In fact, he might be even stronger."

It is very likely that Andre Carter will be back next year because the marriage was so successful in 2011.  I think that Carter is an excellent player, mature and disciplined, and can be among the best at his position if healthy. I hope he returns for a Superbowl run in 2012.

Also, what does this do to the likelihood of drafting an DE/OLB in April? I think that it gives the Patriots veteran insulation at that position, making it easier to develop late round prospects. I have been skeptical about the Patriots drafting a pass rusher high in the draft for week, but I think that getting Carter and hopefully Mark Anderson back for 2012 diminishes the need for immediate help.  The high picks will likely be traded or used on a WR or DB.

The defensive line has good depth, and does not lack talent.  Carter and Anderson brought distinct playmaking ability off the edge. I think there is enough there to address the need for size and speed on the outside (offensive and defensive).  The problems of the defense were mostly on the back end, and the  offense lacks only a dynamic outside WR. If we can upgrade these two positions, and retain critical free agents, we will be poised to be Superbowl favorites.

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