Free Agents To Pursue

The Patriots are in good position to make some free agent signings.  With one of the lower salaries in the NFL, Bob Kraft has some money to spend. The cap value of the team is around $91 Million, which gives us about $29 Million to spend (hard to find reliable NFL Salary cap info).  $9.2 Million goes to Wes Welker via franchise tag.  Who gets the other $20 Million?

I have expressed interest on this blog, that the Patriots should pick up a guy like Mario Williams, DE.  The Patriots like his flexibility between 3-4 and 4-3 end, but his price tag is going to be extremely high. A franchise tag from the Texans would be around $16.5 Million, and considering Houston's cap situation, Williams will likely hit the open market.

How much can he get, and where does he want to go?  He has a lot of leverage on the open market because he is only 27 and would fit into any defensive system.  However, he has played on a bottom-of-the-barrel team his entire career.  Although the Texans went to the playoffs for the first time this year, Williams was put on IR, needing surgery for a pectoral injury.  Will he use his free agency as an opportunity to go to a Superbowl contender like the Patriots?

I find it hard to believe that New England would shell out upwards of $15 Million for anyone, but Super Mario would make an immediate impact on a Defense that is desperate for a reliable edge rusher.  Still, I think that it would be unlikely to see #90 in a Patriots uniform.

Lets take a look at guys who become free agents in 2012, and we will decide whether to bring them back or to let them go

Welker will be back in 2012

• WR Wes Welker - An absolute MUST.  Will be given franchise tag. 
• DE Mark Anderson - would be nice to have him back as a pass rusher, but this is a position that could be upgraded. Anderson did well toward the end of the year after the loss of Andre Carter, but ideally he is not a 3 down player.  His double digit sacks might bring a big payday elsewhere.
• WR Deion Branch - said that he wants to stay here until he retires, but he should not be the #1 receiver.  I expect the Pats to find some youth in the draft.
• QB Brian Hoyer - Do we need to carry 3 QBs again this year? I think we need to save the money and the roster spot.  Let Mallet be the #2.
• RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis - How much does he want? We can't afford to pay him like a 1,000 yard rusher, and he lacks the explosive element that Stevan Ridley can bring to the table.  That said, BJGE is a real character guy, and I hope that he comes back as a short yardage back.  However, will he accept a contract that matches that role?
• DE Andre Carter - Aging lineman coming off a season ending quad injury. Tough call.  Boston area hospitals have done wonders with knee injuries, but he won't be the same.  I loved watching him play this year, but this has retirement written all over it.
• OL Dan Connolly - bring him back, but pay him as a flex back-up for C/G.  Nevertheless, I wouldn't be surprised to see him walk for the chance to start elsewhere. 
• WR Matthew Slater - His value to the team is obvious from his captain status, and I doubt that he will shop the market much.  I think he is a career special teamer and he will be back with a team that values those contributions.
• DL Kyle Love - really stepped up this year, and it is time to pay the man.  He is not going to get a huge contract, but I think his flexibility in odd and even fronts will be valued by the management. 
• C Dan Koppen - Unfortunate that he suffered injury early in the season, but he should be ready to come back and contribute in training camp.  No reason to go outside the organization to improve this position. Koppen is a solid guy in the middle.  That said, you never know what might happen in the draft if Bill can identify a long term option.
• S James Ihedigbo - I think the Safety position must be upgraded.  I think we can afford to let Ihedigbo go. However, if we do, we should pursue a big name like Dashon Goldson or Tyvon Branch in free agency.
• RB Kevin Faulk - retirement. He could get a contract, but as a coach.  There's plenty of young horses in the stable. 
• DE Shaun Ellis - retirement.  He was a huge disappointment, and I can see why the Jets offered him the veteran minimum.
• LB Gary Guyton - extremely athletic, but he has fallen out of favor.  With the emergence of Brandon Spikes and Dane Fletcher, I see no reason to bring Guyton back for special teams only.
• DB Nate Jones - didn't show me anything.
• CB Antwaun Molden - need to upgrade the corner position, but it may be worth it to sign him to a small contract and keep him as a reserve.  Hopefully Ras-I Dowling can stay healthy this year.
• LB Niko Koutouvides - special teamer who made some plays, but is entirely replaceable
• DL Gerard Warren - over the hill, but maybe a veteran minimum contract. Could be useful as a depth option, but he is way down on the list of priorities
• S Bret Lockett - who?
• LB Tracy White - special teamer that can cover.  I think he will be back. 

To wrap up, I doubt that we can afford to pay Mario Williams, but maybe we can bring in someone like Robert Mathis.  Too many teams out there are willing to overpay guys like Williams and Mathis.  Maybe Bill will finally go after an OLB/DE in the draft. Maybe he will get a couple front seven guys.  But, maybe not.

If that is the route that he takes, then the WR and DB positions must be addressed via free agency.  There are too many quality guys out there to stand pat.  I think that Dashon Goldson is the top option at Safety (they had tried to get him before the 2011 season).  There has been a lot of talk about the reunion of WR Brandon Lloyd and OC Josh McDaniels, and it could work out that way.  It would be interesting to see what Lloyd can do with an elite QB. Also, don't rule out Dwayne Bowe at WR.  Considering his familiarity with the route tree (coming from KC) he could be a good pick up.