Running Backs

It is extremely rare to see Rookies make impact plays for the Patriots.  McCourty's 2010 was stellar for sure, but I am thinking primarily of Offensive players here.  Defensive Back is a thin position for the Pats, and so we sometimes see guys step up into big roles because Bill Belichick values their versatility and "up-side" (a la Sterling Moore).  However, I am here to debate the Rookie Running Backs: 2nd rounder Shane Vereen from Cal and 3rd rounder Stevan Ridley from LSU.

Vereen was limited by an early season hamstring injury, but was buried under reliable guys that have paid their dues.  At somewhere between 5'9" and 5'10" - 205lbs, Vereen adds a little bit of size over Faulk and Woodhead (both listed at 5'8" and ~200lbs).  What impressed Bill was his incredible strength (31 reps at 225).  Allow me to translate, 31 reps was second in the RB group behind FB Anthony Sherman.  He's a small back with FB-type strength, watch out for his stiff arm.

Vereen will definitely be able to run between the tackles, as he is a patient and decisive runner.  He also has pretty good hands for a RB, catching 74 passes in 3 seasons at Cal.  So, what's the knock on this guy?  Simply put, he is not the elusive guy that Woodhead is. He is a downhill guy that lacks the ability to shift his hips in close quarters.  Strangely, Vereen leaves much to be desired in pass protection.  Look for this to be is Bill Belichick's biggest project, Vereen is certainly strong enough, but he lacks the experience in reading the blitz and understanding the Patriots complex protections.  

Overall, Vereen has some huge up-side, but a "red-shirt" Rookie season is likely what he needed.  I expect him to overtake Danny Woodhead in 2012 as the 3rd down back if he can shore up his pass protection issues.  As far as I am concerned, he has all the tools to be a feature back in the NFL, but I think that the 1-2 punch of Ridley and Vereen would be the more effective option.  The question is, can these guys avoid the fumblitis?

Stevan Ridley was able to avoid injuries, and showed flashes of being something that the Patriots have been lacking since 2004 with Corey Dillon, posting 441 yards on 81 carries (5.1 avg), but had a couple fumbles.  In that 2004 season, Dillon had 5 fumbles, losing 4 of them, but he also had 1,635yds on 345 carries (4.7 avg).  I bring this up as a contrast to Green-Ellis, who has never fumbled.  BJGE lacks the explosive gear (which Ridley and Dillon seem to have) that causes Defenses to clog the box with 8 or more.  Surely, Ridley needs to improve his ball handling, but he has the talent to offset such mistakes, as Dillon did.

In 2010, BJGE ran for 1,008 yards on 229 attempts - a 4.4 average.  However, my fear is that 2010 is the best it will ever be, especially considering his production in 2011: 667 yds on 181 carries for a 3.7 average.  With reduced touches, I doubt that BJGE can be effective, or at least more effective than Ridley and Vereen.  Benny is a guy that can wear out a Defense, but he needs 15+ touches every game. With the young talent in the backfield, I am not sure that we can give him that many.

So, the question becomes whether or not we can afford to resign BJGE.  His agent will want him to be paid like a 1,000 yard rusher, but Kraft will not be able to offer that.  Green-Ellis is a model of consistency, and a real class-act.  He is a guy that embodies the Patriot Way, and I don't think that anyone wants to see him go.  Overall, it is one of the most compelling off-season questions in Foxboro.  We will monitor the situation closely, but I anticipate a reduced role as a short-yardage back or as a back-up elsewhere.  I think it all depends on the offers from other teams.  If a decent team wants to pay him, he may seize the opportunity.