Trading Down - A Good Draft Strategy?
Every April, once all the draft picks are in, we in New England yell and cry about "the guys we missed." A hoard of trolls will run over to ESPN to spam the poll questions with short sighted views. The Foxboro faithful often lack patience when it comes to drafting players. We expect Belichick to make some sort of flashy pick that we have been told to think of as "the best player on the board." Instead, Roger Goodell approaches the podium to announce that the New England Patriots have traded away their pick for future draft considerations. Indeed, all of these trades produce a wealth of picks for the organization, but the fans are upset that they must wait until next April to get the potent pass rusher that we all desire.
We recall passing on Clay Matthews and watching him win the Superbowl with the Packers. We remember getting a first round pick from the Saints to pass on Mark Ingram. There are plenty of moves that can be looked at negatively, and my point is not to argue that trading for the future is the correct draft strategy, but if you analyze this draft value chart you can see that all of the Patriots draft day trades have yielded increased value. Also, the Patriots consistently come away with a high number of players, often more than can make the final cuts.
It is my feeling that Belichick is not saving these picks to suddenly unload all of them in one draft. Instead, he is using a consistent strategy to always have many high picks, and every year he has the flexibility to do 3 things.
(1) For instance, if Belichick sees the opportunity to grab a player during a restricted free agency period, he would have to surrender a first round pick to do so. With two first round picks, he has the ability to surrender a pick while still having a high draft pick to use in the draft.
(2) Likewise, if Bill sees a once-in-a-generation type player that sits high atop draft boards, he can trade his two picks (at 27 and 31) and end up somewhere around pick #11.
(3) Or, as he usually has done, he will make a trade to accumulate a second first or second round pick for the following year. In this case, he banks on the chance that the other team will perform poorly, leaving the Patriots with a better pick than they could have traded for last draft. This method requires patience, but it could pay off with a #1 overall pick if circumstances conspire against the team trading up.
So, if Belichick decides to make a trade with Jacksonville to secure their 2013 first round pick, I will not be disappointed to wait a year for the results. I think that it is pointless to analyze which players were not selected because of these deals because it is harder to analyze which players have been selected despite the option to trade. Also, this does not take into account how many more picks we have had due to a patient strategy.
Nevertheless, I want to see something big this year in the draft. Like 6'6" 300lbs big.
We recall passing on Clay Matthews and watching him win the Superbowl with the Packers. We remember getting a first round pick from the Saints to pass on Mark Ingram. There are plenty of moves that can be looked at negatively, and my point is not to argue that trading for the future is the correct draft strategy, but if you analyze this draft value chart you can see that all of the Patriots draft day trades have yielded increased value. Also, the Patriots consistently come away with a high number of players, often more than can make the final cuts.
It is my feeling that Belichick is not saving these picks to suddenly unload all of them in one draft. Instead, he is using a consistent strategy to always have many high picks, and every year he has the flexibility to do 3 things.
(1) For instance, if Belichick sees the opportunity to grab a player during a restricted free agency period, he would have to surrender a first round pick to do so. With two first round picks, he has the ability to surrender a pick while still having a high draft pick to use in the draft.
(2) Likewise, if Bill sees a once-in-a-generation type player that sits high atop draft boards, he can trade his two picks (at 27 and 31) and end up somewhere around pick #11.
(3) Or, as he usually has done, he will make a trade to accumulate a second first or second round pick for the following year. In this case, he banks on the chance that the other team will perform poorly, leaving the Patriots with a better pick than they could have traded for last draft. This method requires patience, but it could pay off with a #1 overall pick if circumstances conspire against the team trading up.
So, if Belichick decides to make a trade with Jacksonville to secure their 2013 first round pick, I will not be disappointed to wait a year for the results. I think that it is pointless to analyze which players were not selected because of these deals because it is harder to analyze which players have been selected despite the option to trade. Also, this does not take into account how many more picks we have had due to a patient strategy.
Nevertheless, I want to see something big this year in the draft. Like 6'6" 300lbs big.
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