Who To Draft? - DT, DE, and OLBs in 1st Round
Predicting the NE Patriots' draft strategy is a tall task for any wanna-be Nostradraftus, but speculation is the name of the offseason. Having two 1st rounders and two second rounders gives Bill Belichick a lot of chips to trade with. The question is, will this be the year he cashes in his treasure trove to grab a much longed-for prospect? With Brady turning 35, the window is closing, and its getting close to now-or-never time.
Let us examine a few pass rushing prospects that have been tossed around on messageboards throughout Patriot nation, and see how the scenarios play out.
#41 Courtney Upshaw, OLB/DE from Alabama
This is the guy that "everybody" wants. He will be long gone by #27 if BB decides not trade up, so he would likely cost a pretty penny. Most mock drafts have him going somewhere between #10-#18. This means that he could cost as much as one first rounder, one second rounder, and maybe a future pick (1st or 2nd). That is a heavy price to pay for any one guy. Is he worth it?
The indication is that he would be a better fit in a 3-4, but he can be effective in the 4-3. The knock on him is that when his hand is in the dirt, he has trouble shedding blocks against the run. When standing up, he lacks burst speed and coverage skills. He is a "tweener" that is not really a perfect fit at OLB or DE. Nevertheless, he is disciplined in pursuit, and is a relentless pass rusher.
He would be undersized for a 4-3 end at 6'2" 270lbs because of his short arms. Belichick normally favors taller guys that can tip passes (e.g. Andre Carter 6'4" 255 lbs). So, lets rule that out, but I imagine that he would be asked to put his hand on the ground in obvious passing situations (e.g. Rob Ninkovich)
In a 3-4 at Alabama, Upshaw was rarely asked to drop into coverage, and therefore he draws comparisons to Lamarr Woodley. However, when examining both players' scouting reports, it becomes obvious that such a comparison is generous to Upshaw because no one ever questioned Woodley's ability to shed blocks vs. the run. Still, they have roughly the same size and speed, so it is not ridiculous to compare the two.
Upshaw has legitimate mid 1st round talent, and will contribute on 3 downs somewhere. However, I doubt that it will be in New England. I think that his reputation has been inflated by his performance in the national championship game vs LSU. In my opinion, he's not worth it if we have to trade up to #10. However, if the Patriots can snag him between #15 and #18, I could see him coming to Foxboro. I think that Rob Ninkovich has done enough to retain his spot as the strong side OLB, and there are other positions that are more in need of an upgrade.
#90 Michael Brockers, DL from LSU
Mel Kiper has Brockers lasting until #27, but the Patriots might have to trade up a few spots if Brockers turns heads at the combine. His reputation is growing, but he might still be there at the end of the first round. Even if he scoots up a few spaces, Belichick won't have to give up as much to get him as he would to secure Upshaw. For the purposes of comparison, lets say that the trade would be the same (a 1st, a 2nd, and a future pick). Would Brockers be a better fit for the Patriots?
First of all, Brockers is not a pass rush specialist, but he draws comparisons to Richard Seymour because of his 6'6" 305lb frame. Brockers is projected to make an immediate impact as a 5-technique DE in a 3-4. However, he can also play in 3-technique. He has the ability to stand up against double teams, and has the potential to dominate if left alone. The only significant downside is that he is not a polished pass-rusher. He has a good bull rush, but sometimes gets a bit too high, and struggles against smaller offensive linemen. He has much to learn, but is a physical specimen.
If we picture the D-line with Brockers, Love (if resigned), and Wilfork, the image is beefy and intimidating. Kyle Love has shown that he's more than capable as a 2-gap NT. Wilfork has shown the utmost versatility along the line, and would project as the strong side 3-4 end in this alignment. Just try to run against that front...
Brockers will not immediately solve the Patriots pass rush woes, but opposing O-lines would be hard pressed to deal with three guys that can stay stout against double teams. This would free up Brandon Spikes and Rob Ninkovich to make an impact when blitzing. If drafted by the Pats, Brockers would come to a team with veteran leadership, and excellent coaching. He is ready for the NFL from a physical standpoint, and he is a force to be reckoned with at the point of attack.
In a head to head comparison, I would prefer Brockers over Upshaw because I think that the value of pure pass rushers is vastly overrated in the NFL. Upshaw is the sexy pick because he has the sack numbers (and had a great game in the national championship). In my opinion, Brockers has more potential than Upshaw, and I think that his stout style can impact the defensive unit more than an edge rusher that can win 1 on 1 battles. That's just my thought, but Belichick's draft record tends to agree.
Now, the real question, is he worth it? Its tough to tell where he will land in the draft (and how much he will cost), but I think that Brockers is a better schematic fit for the Patriots compared to Upshaw.. I say that he's worth it to trade, but ideally we won't have to go higher than #18.
#6 Melvin Ingram, OLB/DE from South Carolina
Ingram is likely to go in the mid-to-late first round, and is roundly regarded as the second choice at OLB behind Upshaw. He displays similar size and versatility, but seems to have a few more holes in his game. Undersized for a DE at 6'2" 276lbs, Ingram would surely be utilized as an OLB if drafted by Belichick.
Ingram was moved around the defense quite often at South Carolina, but like Upshaw, he was rarely asked to drop into coverage. When he did drop back, he was used in zone schemes. He likely does not possess the skills or size to stick with larger TEs in man-to-man schemes.
Although Ingram has been praised as versatile, I see a very limited prospect here. He is dominant in pass rush, but he's suspect against the run. He holds an edge well, but often has trouble wrapping up RBs even when he's in good position. Also, his lower body strength leaves much to be desired. In college he was able to hide this with great hands and upper body strength, but it could haunt him in the pros.
I realize that I am painting a largely negative picture of him here, but I do believe that he will be successful at the next level. However, I do not think that the Patriots will draft him. In my opinion, he would not be worth trading up to select, and it is highly unlikely that he will remain on the board until #27. He is strong and athletic, but I see him as a pass rusher that will struggle in coverage and at the point of attack. This just doesn't seem like a schematic fit to me.
#99 Jerel Worthy, DT from Michigan State
The talent pool at DT is pretty shallow this year, and that could make Worthy a hot commodity for teams looking to bulk up a four man line this offseason. Most scouts do not see him as a good fit for a 3-4 defense.
No one knows if Belichick will commit to the 4-3 in this year's draft or if he will build on the success he had at the end of the year with a 3-4. Worthy could be a valuable piece of the 4-3 puzzle if drafted by NE, perhaps Worthy can succeed where Albert Haynesworth failed.
Scouts agree that he has a dominant first step, and has the ability to collapse the pocket from the interior of the line. His stats do not jump off the page, but due to the lack of talent around him at MSU, he was constantly double teamed. Nevertheless, he managed to show up in big games.
Still, I have a hard time getting too excited about #99 because his biggest weakness is that he tends to disappear if he cannot find success early. His conditioning has also been an issue. Likewise, he needs to improve his ability to disengage the double teams that he will surely face if asked to maintain 2-gap discipline.
I doubt that Worthy will come to Foxboro in 2012. This doesn't seem like a Belichick type of guy to me, but I am speaking from a distance. I think that Belichick will resign Kyle Love, and look for help on the edge rather than in the middle. Belichick looks for consistent guys, and his tendency to play up for big games will not help him here.
#8 Nick Perry, OLB/DE from USC
Reading about Perry, it is clear that he needs to add size while not sacrificing his greatest strength, his speed. Most boards place him a the end of the first round, so he is probably not worth trading up to get, but if he is on the board at #27 or #31, he may be headed to Foxboro.
The first thing to note is that he has more experience dropping into zone coverage than many of the pure pass rushers in the draft. He has excellent speed, and at 6'3" 250lbs, he has a bit of a height advantage over guys like Upshaw. In addition, he has a knack for finishing plays with good tackling technique. His size affords him a chance to be dynamic as a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 DE, but either way he should work to bulk up to around 270lbs.
He showcases some very fluid pass rush moves, but tends to get over anxious in rushing the QB. He must get more disciplined in his assignments if he wants to make an impact in the run game. Sometimes his quick first step puts him out of position. Overall, he needs to get stronger and more disciplined against the run. Likewise, he needs to develop some counter moves because he struggles if stopped initially.
Ideally, the coaching in New England can help him on both fronts (strength and discipline), but he needs to get focused if he intends on living up to comparisons to Cameron Wake. He could be a late round steal at #27 or #31.
#40 Andre Branch, DE from Clemson
First of all, Branch projects as strictly a 4-3 DE that will be drafted in the late first or early second round. If Belichick decides that he wants to stick with the 4-3 as a base D, then he might be able to snag Branch with one of his two first rounders. Whether he thinks that Branch is even worth a first round pick is another story entirely.
It is hard to get a good read on this guy because there are many conflicting reports. Some say that his 6'5" 270lbs frame make him an excellent run defender when stacking and shedding blocks, but others say that he is too often blown off the ball in short yardage situations. Some say that he has enough strength to stand up to double teams, but others say that he cannot. However, most agree that he does not exhibit good tackling techniques, often relying on his size to knock guys down with impact alone.
It is obvious that this guy has great size and good speed, but his technique is lacking. As a tall DE, he needs to work on keeping his pad level lower. Likewise, he needs to develop more pass rush moves and counter moves.
Overall, this guy has a lot of untapped potential, but the Patriots cannot afford to spend a first rounder on a "project pick." Belichick needs to find a guy that can impact the D immediately. Unless, the coaching staff sees something that the scouts do not, this is not our guy. Nevertheless, if Branch falls off the boards considerably, he could be a steal in the mid second round with the #48 pick.
Let us examine a few pass rushing prospects that have been tossed around on messageboards throughout Patriot nation, and see how the scenarios play out.
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| had a huge game vs LSU |
This is the guy that "everybody" wants. He will be long gone by #27 if BB decides not trade up, so he would likely cost a pretty penny. Most mock drafts have him going somewhere between #10-#18. This means that he could cost as much as one first rounder, one second rounder, and maybe a future pick (1st or 2nd). That is a heavy price to pay for any one guy. Is he worth it?
The indication is that he would be a better fit in a 3-4, but he can be effective in the 4-3. The knock on him is that when his hand is in the dirt, he has trouble shedding blocks against the run. When standing up, he lacks burst speed and coverage skills. He is a "tweener" that is not really a perfect fit at OLB or DE. Nevertheless, he is disciplined in pursuit, and is a relentless pass rusher.
He would be undersized for a 4-3 end at 6'2" 270lbs because of his short arms. Belichick normally favors taller guys that can tip passes (e.g. Andre Carter 6'4" 255 lbs). So, lets rule that out, but I imagine that he would be asked to put his hand on the ground in obvious passing situations (e.g. Rob Ninkovich)
In a 3-4 at Alabama, Upshaw was rarely asked to drop into coverage, and therefore he draws comparisons to Lamarr Woodley. However, when examining both players' scouting reports, it becomes obvious that such a comparison is generous to Upshaw because no one ever questioned Woodley's ability to shed blocks vs. the run. Still, they have roughly the same size and speed, so it is not ridiculous to compare the two.
Upshaw has legitimate mid 1st round talent, and will contribute on 3 downs somewhere. However, I doubt that it will be in New England. I think that his reputation has been inflated by his performance in the national championship game vs LSU. In my opinion, he's not worth it if we have to trade up to #10. However, if the Patriots can snag him between #15 and #18, I could see him coming to Foxboro. I think that Rob Ninkovich has done enough to retain his spot as the strong side OLB, and there are other positions that are more in need of an upgrade.
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| makes shedding blocks look easy |
Mel Kiper has Brockers lasting until #27, but the Patriots might have to trade up a few spots if Brockers turns heads at the combine. His reputation is growing, but he might still be there at the end of the first round. Even if he scoots up a few spaces, Belichick won't have to give up as much to get him as he would to secure Upshaw. For the purposes of comparison, lets say that the trade would be the same (a 1st, a 2nd, and a future pick). Would Brockers be a better fit for the Patriots?
First of all, Brockers is not a pass rush specialist, but he draws comparisons to Richard Seymour because of his 6'6" 305lb frame. Brockers is projected to make an immediate impact as a 5-technique DE in a 3-4. However, he can also play in 3-technique. He has the ability to stand up against double teams, and has the potential to dominate if left alone. The only significant downside is that he is not a polished pass-rusher. He has a good bull rush, but sometimes gets a bit too high, and struggles against smaller offensive linemen. He has much to learn, but is a physical specimen.
If we picture the D-line with Brockers, Love (if resigned), and Wilfork, the image is beefy and intimidating. Kyle Love has shown that he's more than capable as a 2-gap NT. Wilfork has shown the utmost versatility along the line, and would project as the strong side 3-4 end in this alignment. Just try to run against that front...
Brockers will not immediately solve the Patriots pass rush woes, but opposing O-lines would be hard pressed to deal with three guys that can stay stout against double teams. This would free up Brandon Spikes and Rob Ninkovich to make an impact when blitzing. If drafted by the Pats, Brockers would come to a team with veteran leadership, and excellent coaching. He is ready for the NFL from a physical standpoint, and he is a force to be reckoned with at the point of attack.
In a head to head comparison, I would prefer Brockers over Upshaw because I think that the value of pure pass rushers is vastly overrated in the NFL. Upshaw is the sexy pick because he has the sack numbers (and had a great game in the national championship). In my opinion, Brockers has more potential than Upshaw, and I think that his stout style can impact the defensive unit more than an edge rusher that can win 1 on 1 battles. That's just my thought, but Belichick's draft record tends to agree.
Now, the real question, is he worth it? Its tough to tell where he will land in the draft (and how much he will cost), but I think that Brockers is a better schematic fit for the Patriots compared to Upshaw.. I say that he's worth it to trade, but ideally we won't have to go higher than #18.
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| Ingram is a terror in pass rush |
Ingram is likely to go in the mid-to-late first round, and is roundly regarded as the second choice at OLB behind Upshaw. He displays similar size and versatility, but seems to have a few more holes in his game. Undersized for a DE at 6'2" 276lbs, Ingram would surely be utilized as an OLB if drafted by Belichick.
Ingram was moved around the defense quite often at South Carolina, but like Upshaw, he was rarely asked to drop into coverage. When he did drop back, he was used in zone schemes. He likely does not possess the skills or size to stick with larger TEs in man-to-man schemes.
Although Ingram has been praised as versatile, I see a very limited prospect here. He is dominant in pass rush, but he's suspect against the run. He holds an edge well, but often has trouble wrapping up RBs even when he's in good position. Also, his lower body strength leaves much to be desired. In college he was able to hide this with great hands and upper body strength, but it could haunt him in the pros.
I realize that I am painting a largely negative picture of him here, but I do believe that he will be successful at the next level. However, I do not think that the Patriots will draft him. In my opinion, he would not be worth trading up to select, and it is highly unlikely that he will remain on the board until #27. He is strong and athletic, but I see him as a pass rusher that will struggle in coverage and at the point of attack. This just doesn't seem like a schematic fit to me.
 |
| Worthy of a constant double team |
The talent pool at DT is pretty shallow this year, and that could make Worthy a hot commodity for teams looking to bulk up a four man line this offseason. Most scouts do not see him as a good fit for a 3-4 defense.
No one knows if Belichick will commit to the 4-3 in this year's draft or if he will build on the success he had at the end of the year with a 3-4. Worthy could be a valuable piece of the 4-3 puzzle if drafted by NE, perhaps Worthy can succeed where Albert Haynesworth failed.
Scouts agree that he has a dominant first step, and has the ability to collapse the pocket from the interior of the line. His stats do not jump off the page, but due to the lack of talent around him at MSU, he was constantly double teamed. Nevertheless, he managed to show up in big games.
Still, I have a hard time getting too excited about #99 because his biggest weakness is that he tends to disappear if he cannot find success early. His conditioning has also been an issue. Likewise, he needs to improve his ability to disengage the double teams that he will surely face if asked to maintain 2-gap discipline.
I doubt that Worthy will come to Foxboro in 2012. This doesn't seem like a Belichick type of guy to me, but I am speaking from a distance. I think that Belichick will resign Kyle Love, and look for help on the edge rather than in the middle. Belichick looks for consistent guys, and his tendency to play up for big games will not help him here.
 |
| Perry needs to add 10-20 pounds |
Reading about Perry, it is clear that he needs to add size while not sacrificing his greatest strength, his speed. Most boards place him a the end of the first round, so he is probably not worth trading up to get, but if he is on the board at #27 or #31, he may be headed to Foxboro.
The first thing to note is that he has more experience dropping into zone coverage than many of the pure pass rushers in the draft. He has excellent speed, and at 6'3" 250lbs, he has a bit of a height advantage over guys like Upshaw. In addition, he has a knack for finishing plays with good tackling technique. His size affords him a chance to be dynamic as a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 DE, but either way he should work to bulk up to around 270lbs.
He showcases some very fluid pass rush moves, but tends to get over anxious in rushing the QB. He must get more disciplined in his assignments if he wants to make an impact in the run game. Sometimes his quick first step puts him out of position. Overall, he needs to get stronger and more disciplined against the run. Likewise, he needs to develop some counter moves because he struggles if stopped initially.
Ideally, the coaching in New England can help him on both fronts (strength and discipline), but he needs to get focused if he intends on living up to comparisons to Cameron Wake. He could be a late round steal at #27 or #31.
 |
| Branch has lots of untapped potential |
First of all, Branch projects as strictly a 4-3 DE that will be drafted in the late first or early second round. If Belichick decides that he wants to stick with the 4-3 as a base D, then he might be able to snag Branch with one of his two first rounders. Whether he thinks that Branch is even worth a first round pick is another story entirely.
It is hard to get a good read on this guy because there are many conflicting reports. Some say that his 6'5" 270lbs frame make him an excellent run defender when stacking and shedding blocks, but others say that he is too often blown off the ball in short yardage situations. Some say that he has enough strength to stand up to double teams, but others say that he cannot. However, most agree that he does not exhibit good tackling techniques, often relying on his size to knock guys down with impact alone.
It is obvious that this guy has great size and good speed, but his technique is lacking. As a tall DE, he needs to work on keeping his pad level lower. Likewise, he needs to develop more pass rush moves and counter moves.
Overall, this guy has a lot of untapped potential, but the Patriots cannot afford to spend a first rounder on a "project pick." Belichick needs to find a guy that can impact the D immediately. Unless, the coaching staff sees something that the scouts do not, this is not our guy. Nevertheless, if Branch falls off the boards considerably, he could be a steal in the mid second round with the #48 pick.
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