Welker's Ongoing Saga

I would not be too worried about the McGinest - Welker back and forth.  I think that the Welker contract situation is just a story being pushed by ESPN.  Welker may not go to all of the Offseason Training, but he is not disgruntled with the franchise or being a diva.

In fact, I think that Welker may have been instructed by the club to take a backseat during the offseason.  Brady needs to develop rapport with his new targets (although QBs are not allowed to throw to WRs yet by NFL rule).  Welker is not needed until Mid-May when the practices start to ramp up.

It is my belief that Welker will get a long-term deal after the draft and after the Andre Carter deal is figured (thanks for the tip Matthias).  It makes sense that the Patriots would want to sign him last, after all the picks are signed, and the financial situation is perfectly clear.  The tag was used to keep Welker from testing free agency.

Neither side could agree on a long term deal because the franchise was not exactly sure how much money they would have to spend.  I think that the team will reward Wes with a 3-4 year deal with a lot of guaranteed money up front.  The club should use the most of their remaining salary cap balance on Welker.  This will front-load his contract to give the team more spending power as his deal progresses.

It could happen that Welker makes more than the 9 Million (from the franchise tag) in 2012, so that the team can lock him up long term while not having to spend 9 Million on him every year.  The deal I imagine looks something like this:

4 years.
Year 1 - 8 Mil base salary, plus 4 Mil signing/incentives
Year 2 - 8 Mil base salary, plus 1 Mil in incentives
Year 3 - 6 Mil base salary, plus 2 Mil in incentives
Year 4 - 5 Mil base salary, plus 2 Mil in incentives

potentially worth 36 Million (average of 9 Mil per season).  The incentives will be based on workout attendance, number of games played, and catches/production.

I am not a contract expert, but I think that this would be appetizing to a guy that wants security in years.    I also think that it is a good idea to make his contract heavily incentive based because he is aging, and it would be a good hedge bet in case he suffers an injury.  Comment below. What do you think of this contract?

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