There Comes A Time...
Here I am, trying to recall the greatness of the 2011-12 Patriots, and it still rings sour. Losing to the Giants, again...just so painful. Nevertheless, the Patriots seem to have improved upon their 2011 team.
The 2011 regular season was vintage Tom Brady, distribution of the ball between 5 guys, and two guys (Welker and Gronk) led the league in quality statistics, making runs at history. Wes Welker/Tom Brady's missed connection is extremely difficult to recall, but it happened. If the other scenario played out, Wes would have been considered for MVP behind Tom. It is a game of inches.
It is hard to talk about the receiving corps before cuts, but Brandon Lloyd and Josh McDaniels have been successful with far less than Tom Brady and Wes Welker in the slot. Gronkowski will probably block more and be used as a red zone and third down threat. Hernandez will line up on the second slot defender, which forces a LB or S into a mismatch. Meanwhile, Lloyd will be on the outside 1-on-1 because of the treat in the center of the field. Tom Brady likes to throw deep...easy money.
The Defense is so unpredictable at this point, but Belichick got his guys. I think he is going to have Dont'a Hightower play 4-downs and stick opposing TEs in the passing game. Chandler Jones seems to be promising defender, but I can't say what he excels at or how he'll be used. What kind of defensive fronts will be utilized this year?
The LB corps is crowded, so I assume that both Jones and Jake Bequette will be used as DL. However, if these guys are as versatile as the experts suggest, then this may be the return of the Amoeba Defense with no down-linemen. When we play Peyton Manning, Belichick might break out a few creative looks.
Predictions
Bottom line is that I like the Patriots odds:
odds of making the playoffs (90%).
odds of winning a playoff game (80%)
odds of winning AFC championship (59%)
odds of winning the SuperBowl (49%).
Wes Welker 109 rec. 1,140 yards, 7 TDs.
Brandon Lloyd 79 rec. 1,305 yards, 14 TDs.
Rob Gronkowski 66 rec. 790 yards, 13 TDs.
Aaron Hernandez 44 rec. 560 yards, 5 TDs.
All others 324 yards 4 TDs
Stevan Ridley 802 yards, 32 rec. 289 yards, 11 TDs (2 rec), 3 fumbles
Shane Vereen 310 yards, 45 rec. 360 yards, 4 TDs (2 rec), 1 fumble
Joseph Addai 120 yards, 12 rec. 89 yards, 1 TD.
Danny Woodhead 230 yards, 22 rec. 168 yards, 3 TDs (2 rec).
Tom Brady 5,025 yards, 49 pass TDs, 2 rush TDs, 9 INTs, league MVP.
Defensive rank yards allowed: 14th.
Defensive rank points against: 16th.
Turnover differential: 3rd (+12)
Takeaways: 27
Giveaways: 15
Tom Brady will not lead the league in yards, but his TD/INT ratio is too hard to deny for MVP while leading the Patriots to a 14-2 record. Losing a close one to Baltimore and a surprising upset at Miami. The Defense needs a little time to gel, but Brady is going to come out gunning.
The 2011 regular season was vintage Tom Brady, distribution of the ball between 5 guys, and two guys (Welker and Gronk) led the league in quality statistics, making runs at history. Wes Welker/Tom Brady's missed connection is extremely difficult to recall, but it happened. If the other scenario played out, Wes would have been considered for MVP behind Tom. It is a game of inches.
It is hard to talk about the receiving corps before cuts, but Brandon Lloyd and Josh McDaniels have been successful with far less than Tom Brady and Wes Welker in the slot. Gronkowski will probably block more and be used as a red zone and third down threat. Hernandez will line up on the second slot defender, which forces a LB or S into a mismatch. Meanwhile, Lloyd will be on the outside 1-on-1 because of the treat in the center of the field. Tom Brady likes to throw deep...easy money.
The Defense is so unpredictable at this point, but Belichick got his guys. I think he is going to have Dont'a Hightower play 4-downs and stick opposing TEs in the passing game. Chandler Jones seems to be promising defender, but I can't say what he excels at or how he'll be used. What kind of defensive fronts will be utilized this year?
The LB corps is crowded, so I assume that both Jones and Jake Bequette will be used as DL. However, if these guys are as versatile as the experts suggest, then this may be the return of the Amoeba Defense with no down-linemen. When we play Peyton Manning, Belichick might break out a few creative looks.
Predictions
Bottom line is that I like the Patriots odds:
odds of making the playoffs (90%).
odds of winning a playoff game (80%)
odds of winning AFC championship (59%)
odds of winning the SuperBowl (49%).
Wes Welker 109 rec. 1,140 yards, 7 TDs.
Brandon Lloyd 79 rec. 1,305 yards, 14 TDs.
Rob Gronkowski 66 rec. 790 yards, 13 TDs.
Aaron Hernandez 44 rec. 560 yards, 5 TDs.
All others 324 yards 4 TDs
Stevan Ridley 802 yards, 32 rec. 289 yards, 11 TDs (2 rec), 3 fumbles
Shane Vereen 310 yards, 45 rec. 360 yards, 4 TDs (2 rec), 1 fumble
Joseph Addai 120 yards, 12 rec. 89 yards, 1 TD.
Danny Woodhead 230 yards, 22 rec. 168 yards, 3 TDs (2 rec).
Tom Brady 5,025 yards, 49 pass TDs, 2 rush TDs, 9 INTs, league MVP.
Defensive rank yards allowed: 14th.
Defensive rank points against: 16th.
Turnover differential: 3rd (+12)
Takeaways: 27
Giveaways: 15
Tom Brady will not lead the league in yards, but his TD/INT ratio is too hard to deny for MVP while leading the Patriots to a 14-2 record. Losing a close one to Baltimore and a surprising upset at Miami. The Defense needs a little time to gel, but Brady is going to come out gunning.
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