Keys To Victory @ Buffalo

1. Show Up For The 4th Quarter - Last week, The Patriots could only muster 3 points in the final 15:00. Gostkowski kicked a FG with 14:10 remaining, and after that Brady and company looked lost. A 9 point lead should be safe in the final quarter, but the team picked a bad time to disappear. This type of inconsistency is not something we are used to with Brady and Belichick teams, and they need to prove that they can lead this young team for a full 60 minutes. So far this year, The Patriots have not played a complete game, so I think that is priority number 1 for the showdown at Ralph Wilson Stadium come Sunday.

2. Make It Work With Ridley - I have criticized the play-calling from the two losses ad nauseum, but really I want to see more formational/personnel balance. Show opposing teams that we can pass effectively with Ridley on the field. Likewise, Brady needs to identify the correct play call based on the Defense. He did not choose very well in The Ravens game, and purple jerseys swarmed the backfield. Ridley's threat cannot be limited to edge runs and play action passes. Brady must be able to drop back and let Ridley block. The loss of raw talent from Ridley to Woodhead and Bolden is significant, so this Offense has got to find a way to make it work with Ridley in the game.  The O-line needs to block better and Brady needs to read better. Ridley needs to take what he can get and limit negative plays.

3. Sub Defenses Need To Be Ready - The Bills traditionally run a lot of 3-WR, 1-TE, 1-RB sets as a means to spread the field. Ryan Fitzpatrick makes his money on three and five step drops. So far this year, Fitzpatrick has only been sacked once because of this quick-passing style. The Patriots will need to use a high percentage of Nickel and Dime packages to cover the spread out field, and the DBs should  try to anticipate routes and try for INTs. Also, DL should get their hands up to create tipped balls.  Likewise, the Bills have had good success running out of 3-WR sets, and this will challenge The Patriots Safeties to stay disciplined against run and pass. Also, McCourty has had some bad games covering Stevie Johnson, and this matchup bears watching. Hopefully, Devin will get some over the top help to combat Johnson's deep speed.

4. 3rd Down - The play on 3rd down will be a huge factor in this game. Both Offenses are converting 43% of their opportunities, but I expect this to change. Brady's numbers should be characteristically better than Fitzpatrick's based upon their career numbers. Likewise, The Bills D is allowing 46% while The Patriots have held opponents to 36%. The Patriots need to continue their early-season trends and force The Bills into 3rd and long situations. While Fitzpatrick is trying to maintain his success at 43%, Brady expects to increase that number. The winner of this contest will be the team that plays better on 3rd down, so it is imperative that Brady converts his opportunities and that Patriot Defenders force long situations and make their open field tackles.

5. Brady To Lloyd - This week is the week that we will see the identity of this Offense. Each game we've seen Brady looking for Brandon Lloyd more than 10 times. I expect this to continue, but I also expect that in this game, Lloyd will have that break-out play for 60 yards and a TD or something. I expect to see at least one impossible sideline catch in every game for the rest of the season, but in this game I think Lloyd will exploit a lot of man-to-man coverage. Based on Gronkowski's history of big games in his hometown, I think The Bills will pay a lot of attention to him. Chan Gailey will do his best to take away Gronk and Brady will respond by feeding Lloyd, who eats up man coverage. I expect him to have a big game, and I expect his big plays and stylish grabs to be the difference in this one.