Pats D vs. Cardinals O

Tavon Wilson is the key to the Sub D 

John Skelton or Kevin Kolb, does it really matter?  I think it will matter more to the Cardinals than to the philosophy for stopping their attack.  Skelton and Kolb can both be efficient passers that will hurt a sloppy defense.  However, both QBs have a decent chance of making a mistake during the game.  Jake Locker made a ball control mistake, and a throwing mistake last week, and the Pats D made him pay for both.

The Defense will likely seek to make Arizona one dimensional by eliminating their run threat. Arizona is not an exceptional rushing team anyway, and their lead RB is not clear-cut. Last week, Arizona's leading rusher was a WR.  So, taking away Beanie Wells and Ryan Matthews should be easy compared to stopping Chris Johnson.

Bill Belichick probably feels comfortable with only 7 men in the box to stop the run.  He may even use a big DB like Tavon Wilson as a LB (in place of Spikes) if the running game is utterly terrible.  Using Wilson as a 3rd Safety would be considered a nickle package, but Wilson would bring more size and more reliable tackling to the secondary compared to a CB like Dowling. This is a package that we could see on early downs against a bad rushing Offense.

Tavon Wilson has a huge advantage in the pass game over Brandon Spikes, and if the team cannot run effectively enough to make Belichick pay for the substitutions, then it offers better pass Defense with little to no loss in run Defense.  I feel comfortable with Wilson matching up against TEs Jeff King and Todd Heap, so I think we will see a high percentage of "sub" Defenses (5 or 6 DBs).  I expect to see Gregory, Chung, and Wilson on the field together with Ras-I Dowling as the 6th DB.

These extra DBs free up the Patriots to double team Larry Fitzgerald all day.  I think that Larry Fitzgerald is priority #1 because he is the most explosive player on the Cardinals.  Without a run game, the Cardinals will inevitably have trouble sustaining drives (3-10 last week on 3rd down) especially if Skelton or Kolb cannot go to Larry.  Likewise, we can't let Larry score on explosive 1-shot-kill plays.

Overall, the plan is simple and can be broken down into 3 keys:
1. Stop the running game early and often.  Continue to stop the running game, even out of Nickle and Dime packages. Make the Cardinals completely one dimensional, and make them abandon all hope.
2. Use extra DBs to limit Larry Fitzgerald.  Double team him, jam him at the line while playing over the top, do whatever necessary to keep it out of his hands. This plan relies completely on our Defense's ability to stop the run in sub packages.
3. Force Skelton or Kolb into at least one major mistake. By forcing the Cardinals to be a pass-first team, you put a lot of pressure on the QB to be exceptional.  Keeping it out of his top receiver's hands will force him to rely on others.  Do not force the issue if he works within his limits (no running and no Larry). Instead, continue with the game plan and let him make his mistake.