Stats Are For Losers @ Baltimore

I believe this segment will garner more truth in weeks to come when the sample size incorporates at least 4 games. Nevertheless, the stats are there for the taking. Numbers never tell the whole story, but can be used to confirm or deny our suspicions about opposing teams.

The Ravens have been telling everyone just how "explosive" their Offense is, and in week 1 they scored 44 points. They were somewhat less impressive in week 2 with 23 points. I think "explosive" is a good word because they get nearly all of their yardage on "big plays." Every single member of the Offense has caught a pass for 20+ yards except for FB Vonta Leach and newcomer Tandon Doss.

In addition, the Ravens are a paltry 7 of 23 on 3rd down, and 1 of 3 on 4th down. This puts their conversion rate at about 30%. Compare this to New England's admittedly struggling Offense that has converted 11 for 27, roughly 40%. In this light, The Ravens seem to rely on "explosion" to mask their inability to grind it out with consistent execution. 

Also, we can check the total number of first downs gained by each team: 43 for The Ravens and 50 for The Patriots. This stat becomes even more telling when you account for the 6 first downs handed to The Ravens by penalty. The Patriots have had zero first downs by penalty. The Patriots have run more plays, 145 vs 123, but despite the two different approaches, each team has similar yardage figures. The Patriots 777 total yards, The Ravens 755. 

The Patriots have relied on better execution of short plays, while The Ravens make their bank connecting downfield. Each Defense will face potent Offenses that can put up points. In years past, the Defensive match-up would always lean heavily in Baltimore's favor. However, as much as The Ravens Offense is improved, this Patriots Defense has made enormous strides from last year. 

In fact, the statistics on Defense lean toward New England. Both teams are getting off the field on 3rd down, holding teams to conversion rates of 36% and 32% (Ravens 11/30 and Patriots 9/28). However, it is The Ravens that have surrendered more yardage and more first downs. The Patriots have only given up 526 yards and 32 first downs. The Ravens have allowed 46 first downs and 808 total yards. I am going to chalk this up to error based on sample size, but the gap between the two is pretty glaring. 

Overall, a basic statistical analysis favors New England, but certainly the sample sizes are flawed. Still, it is my inkling that The Patriots Defense has improved more than The Ravens Offense has improved. Likewise, compared to 2011, The Ravens Defense is not as good considering the loss of Terrell Suggs. 

Despite being on the road for a primetime game, I expect the Patriots to make a statement. These Defensive stats are currently viewed as "aberrational" but if Belichick and company can shut down this "explosive" Ravens Offense, they may finally get some well-deserved respect nationally.  My guess: 27-23 Patriots.