Welker, And All That Jazz

Welker is the longest tenured of Brady's targets

Those of you that were sporting your #83 jerseys on Sunday and those that had the little guy in fantasy were disappointed that Welker was not as involved as usual (or last year).  No doubt, Welker was replaced at critical times by Julian Edelman, and not just in the 4th quarter.  Edelman played 23 snaps, and Welker played 43, sitting out 24 total plays.

However, coaches did not swap Welker and Edelman 1 to 1 in all instances.  While this trend of reducing Welker's snaps is not totally dependent on the play of Edelman, I think it is the most prominent factor.  Nevertheless, we saw quite a few plays where Aaron Hernandez lined up at the Z or slot position in lieu of Welker.  Also, on 4 snaps, Welker came off the field for a FB or a second RB in Lex Hilliard.  Likewise, there is something to be said of the long term health benefits of reducing Welker's snaps to keep him fresh for January and February.

All these factors play a role in changing how the Offense will operate under Josh McDaniels (Edelman, Hernandez, 2 RB sets, and injury risk).  However, McDaniels has come out to say that despite the buzz, Welker's role has not changed.  He is still a Z (slot) receiver that threatens with yards after the catch.  What may have changed is the role of the Z receiver.

Welker has not changed, and he will do the same things he has always done.  However, it is obvious to see that the Offense is different.  McDaniels will put even more emphasis on the TEs than Bill O'Brien had in 2011.  McDaniels is the mastermind behind using Hernandez from the backfield, and he is constantly finding new ways to disguise and utilize the TEs.  

McDaniels used 2 or more TEs on all 67 snaps. He opted for 3 TEs on 10 of those 67 snaps.  The role of the TE is indeed cutting into the role of the Z receiver because Aaron Hernandez can play an effective Z receiver.  Likewise, McDaniels likes to utilize Julian Edelman because his skill set is slightly different from Welker's.  Some are saying that Edelman is a better blocker, and also I think Edelman is better on slip screen plays.  Welker is better on actual route running and catching, so his role is safe.

No one on this team can replace the reliability and rapport that Welker has with Brady.  His role may be reduced in terms of targets, but his role as the go-to guy between 0-10 yards is not likely to change.  I think that we will see a reduction in Welker's snaps and targets, but the team will look to him to make the most of his opportunities, especially on critical downs. I think he will get more than 5 targets a game, and in some games he will be the primary target based on the match-ups that the opponent presents.

Overall, I don't think there is any cause for alarm that Welker is being "phased out" of the Offense.  Indeed, Welker's role is being squeezed by the embarrassment of riches that we have supporting Brady.  However, Welker is still a viable weapon and will be used as often as necessary.  Likewise, any notion that this is punishment or in any way related to the contract situation should be squelched right now.  I think that there is an extremely small sample size from which to draw any conclusion, but my guess is that week 1 will be an outlier for Wes' season.  McDaniels seemed to be more concerned with getting Brandon Lloyd and Stevan Ridley into the action so that those players could build their base.  Welker is a known commodity, and will be used plenty to sate the appetites of Welker fans everywhere.