Defending Peyton Manning
I don't care what anybody says, Peyton Manning will always be Archie Manning's favorite son. Peyton knows what it was like to have to build a franchise in the NFL, its something Archie couldn't do in New Orleans. Eli was given everything, and he plays for the Giants because Archie threw a hissy fit. Well, Peyton will always be my favorite Manning, if there is such a thing...
However, this is not a defense of Peyton's character. No, this is about actually playing Defense against Peyton Manning. This has been an open ended question for a while now, and I certainly don't know what Belichick will do. Still, I can fondly imagine what might happen...
I am not having nightmares, but I think the Defense will have a spotty performance. I can see some great coverage, but I also see Manning taking advantage of the seams in front of the Safeties. Peyton may be able to score 28 points, but for certain stretches in the game Peyton could get frustrated. The key is getting consecutive stops (3 or 4 and punt / turnover). The Patriots Offense can gain momentum quickly, and consecutive stops may turn into 14 points before the Denver Defense has any chance to adjust. Time on the sideline is good for rest and strategy, but its also where we want to keep Peyton.
A powerless Peyton is a good Manning. The best way to defend Peyton Manning is to possess the ball on Offense and limit his chances. However, oddly enough, you want to force him to throw 50 times in a game. The Patriots want to play from ahead, and stop the run. Peyton Manning gets vulnerable when he tries to do too much. The real pressure is on The Patriots Defense to stop the run with only the front 7, and with only 6 in Sub packages. An active Wilfork-Love combo will be crucial to forcing Manning to air it out.
Why let Manning throw 50+ times? Well, NFL.com statistics say that Peyton Manning's career INT% is 2.7. So, therefore if Manning throws 50 times, there is a theoretical probability which dictates that Manning will throw 1.35 INTs. If Manning has a 3 TD/1INT game, which far exceeds his career ratio of 407 TD to 201 INTs, then The Patriots have a great chance to win. That is, provided that they can stop the RBs: McGahee, Ball, Hillman, and Moreno in both Base and Sub Defenses.
The key to stopping the run with 6 or 7 "in the box" is choice of personnel. I expect to see a heavy snap count for Tavon Wilson, Kyle Love, and Vince Wilfork. Wilson is a hybrid in the secondary that can be a DB or a LB, and this will be useful in disguise and in balance vs run and pass. Love and Wilfork may not bring superior pass rush, but they both play 2-gaps effectively and it is very hard to run at them. Another key player is Chandler Jones, and his ability to pass rush effectively while remaining stout on the edge will be tested by the Peyton-Signature "Sprint-Draw with Play-Action Fake." Lets see some tape:
The Patriots Defense faces a 3 WR/1 RB/1 TE set on 2nd & 6, and they respond with Nickel personnel. This is a Nickel set with Tavon Wilson acting as a S/LB, with 3 CBs. CB/S Sterling Moore (not in frame) plays off the lone WR to the left. Patrick Chung is not on the field, and Steve Gregory is in deep center field. Arrington plays on the slot man, and McCourty has the outside.
The Bills run the ball between the tackles with Fred Jackson. #74 Kyle Love and #50 Rob Ninkovich show Jackson a hole, but do well to converge and tighten the hole into a pile. #75 Vince Wilfork adds his blockers to the pile, and Jackson is forced to cut back.
The cut back move puts Jackson in a race to the edge set by #95 Chandler Jones against S/LB-hybrid #27 Tavon Wilson. Wilson gets through the hole and grabs hold of Jackson's foot. He holds on tight as Jones loops around to finish the tackle for no gain. An ankle is enough for a tackle here, but to play a heavy workload in a LB-type role, Wilson stands to improve on his angles near the line. It was a good team play, but not one that cannot be improved. Plus, you gotta love the upside that The Patriots rookies have shown thus far. Let's see how 95, 54, and 27 hold up against 18 come Sunday.
However, this is not a defense of Peyton's character. No, this is about actually playing Defense against Peyton Manning. This has been an open ended question for a while now, and I certainly don't know what Belichick will do. Still, I can fondly imagine what might happen...
I am not having nightmares, but I think the Defense will have a spotty performance. I can see some great coverage, but I also see Manning taking advantage of the seams in front of the Safeties. Peyton may be able to score 28 points, but for certain stretches in the game Peyton could get frustrated. The key is getting consecutive stops (3 or 4 and punt / turnover). The Patriots Offense can gain momentum quickly, and consecutive stops may turn into 14 points before the Denver Defense has any chance to adjust. Time on the sideline is good for rest and strategy, but its also where we want to keep Peyton.
A powerless Peyton is a good Manning. The best way to defend Peyton Manning is to possess the ball on Offense and limit his chances. However, oddly enough, you want to force him to throw 50 times in a game. The Patriots want to play from ahead, and stop the run. Peyton Manning gets vulnerable when he tries to do too much. The real pressure is on The Patriots Defense to stop the run with only the front 7, and with only 6 in Sub packages. An active Wilfork-Love combo will be crucial to forcing Manning to air it out.
Why let Manning throw 50+ times? Well, NFL.com statistics say that Peyton Manning's career INT% is 2.7. So, therefore if Manning throws 50 times, there is a theoretical probability which dictates that Manning will throw 1.35 INTs. If Manning has a 3 TD/1INT game, which far exceeds his career ratio of 407 TD to 201 INTs, then The Patriots have a great chance to win. That is, provided that they can stop the RBs: McGahee, Ball, Hillman, and Moreno in both Base and Sub Defenses.
The key to stopping the run with 6 or 7 "in the box" is choice of personnel. I expect to see a heavy snap count for Tavon Wilson, Kyle Love, and Vince Wilfork. Wilson is a hybrid in the secondary that can be a DB or a LB, and this will be useful in disguise and in balance vs run and pass. Love and Wilfork may not bring superior pass rush, but they both play 2-gaps effectively and it is very hard to run at them. Another key player is Chandler Jones, and his ability to pass rush effectively while remaining stout on the edge will be tested by the Peyton-Signature "Sprint-Draw with Play-Action Fake." Lets see some tape:
STOPPING THE RUN WITH 6 or 7.
The Patriots Defense faces a 3 WR/1 RB/1 TE set on 2nd & 6, and they respond with Nickel personnel. This is a Nickel set with Tavon Wilson acting as a S/LB, with 3 CBs. CB/S Sterling Moore (not in frame) plays off the lone WR to the left. Patrick Chung is not on the field, and Steve Gregory is in deep center field. Arrington plays on the slot man, and McCourty has the outside.
The Bills run the ball between the tackles with Fred Jackson. #74 Kyle Love and #50 Rob Ninkovich show Jackson a hole, but do well to converge and tighten the hole into a pile. #75 Vince Wilfork adds his blockers to the pile, and Jackson is forced to cut back.
The cut back move puts Jackson in a race to the edge set by #95 Chandler Jones against S/LB-hybrid #27 Tavon Wilson. Wilson gets through the hole and grabs hold of Jackson's foot. He holds on tight as Jones loops around to finish the tackle for no gain. An ankle is enough for a tackle here, but to play a heavy workload in a LB-type role, Wilson stands to improve on his angles near the line. It was a good team play, but not one that cannot be improved. Plus, you gotta love the upside that The Patriots rookies have shown thus far. Let's see how 95, 54, and 27 hold up against 18 come Sunday. 
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