Keys To Victory - Denver

Another INT could be huge for Wilson

1. Win Turnover Battle - Obviously the Offense needs to hold onto the ball, but you can't with the TO Battle if you don't get any takeaways. Moreover, the Defensive personnel will be shorthanded this week as S Steve Gregory has been ruled out with a hip injury. Likewise, Dont'a Hightower will be a game-time decision. To expect the Defense to keep Manning in check for the entirety of the game is a wishful folly, but the key to winning will be to cause some turnovers. Peyton Manning can and will have success against this Defense. The way to force turnovers is to stop the run. The Pats might get the benefit of another forced fumble, but stiff Run D will force Peyton to try to do too much. Peyton might rack up the yards, but a key turnover here or there could be the difference in the game.

2. Force FGs in the Red Zone - With Tavon Wilson poised to start due to Gregory's injury, his performance comes into focus as the key to limiting big plays. Gregory and Chung have allowed a few too many explosive plays, especially the last two weeks against Buffalo and Baltimore. Wilson has shown up positively in most of the tape I've seen, but it will be interesting to see how he holds up over 60+ snaps. Also, it will be interesting to see if Nate Ebner comes on as a 3rd Safety in some Nickel packages. Safety play is key to limiting big plays, but once in the red zone, Manning will attack the CBs on fade routes to Demaryius Thomas. Likewise, Peyton will try to exploit the LBs with Stokley, Tamme, and Decker. The Safeties are key in the middle of the field, but LBs and CBs are crucial in the red zone. Also, the inverse is true here, The Pats need to score TDs not FGs.

3. Run The Ball - It is probably ridiculous to expect anything close to the success we saw in Buffalo, but a strong ground game will be huge in this contest. The best Defense against an elite QB is a ball-control Offense, and long sustained drives will go a long way in keeping Manning on the bench. Its not enough to move the ball and score points, The Patriots are going to need to chew up the clock, and hopefully be able to run the clock out in a close game. No one in Pats Nation wants to look on as Manning takes the field in the 4th quarter of a close game.  Establishing the run will open up play-action and keep Dumervil and Miller in-check on their pass rush. The importance of running the ball against Peyton and The Broncos cannot be understated.

4. Defensive Disguise - Tavon Wilson's role in filling in for Gregory might make him the most important player on Defense on Sunday. How will he hold up in base coverages, and how much moving around will he be able to manage pre-snap?  He is a rookie, and I don't expect a perfect performance, but for better or worse, we will learn a lot about our 2nd rounder this week. Nevertheless, I think the key to disguising Defenses starts up front with the DLs and LBs. The front seven is the strength of the Defense because the players are so versatile and talented. Belichick may not be able to do everything he wants to do on the back end, but unique pressure packages and roaming fronts can make it hard for Manning to find the Mike LB and manage his protections. I am in favor of mixing things up and getting a bit more aggressive, but I also expect to see 8 and 9 man coverages disguised as blitzes. Defensive preparation and play-calling are crucial to successfully defending Manning. This one falls on the coaches.

Gronk and Hernandez might be reunited this week.

5. Convert on 3rd Down - It is possible that Brady could have Aaron Hernandez back in the lineup, and his quickness would be a definite boost on Offense. Since going down with an ankle injury, The Patriots' 3rd down conversion rate has dropped nearly 10 percentage points. Hernandez has been out for nearly 3 whole games, and his absence certainly has had a negative effect on the Offensive efficiency.  Even if Hernandez does not suit up, 3rd down will be key. If the RBs are unable to keep the chains moving on 1st and 2nd, it will fall on Brady to execute in these moments. A few times last week Brady made bad choices with the ball, forcing it to Lloyd on 3rd downs, but he turned it around later in the game. The high powered Offense on the other sideline will not afford Brady as much time to "figure it out." Brady and the Offense need to be firing on all cylinders for the better part of 4 quarters. 60 minutes of perfection will not happen, but The Offense needs to improve on 41% on 3rd downs.