Monday Re-Watch - Jets

Photos - Patriots.com David Silverman
Is it The Offense or The Defense that concerns you?
Every Monday, win lose or draw, I go back and take a second look at the game. I do my best to separate the passion and emotion of Sunday from the retrospect of Monday. This game against The Jets was a huge win for The Patriots. Everybody is still concerned about the team because it wasn't exactly a feel good win though. Many of the same frustrations cropped up again in the 4th quarter of this one. 

Stop me if you've heard this before: The Patriots were up by 10 points headed into the 4th quarter. They managed only 3 points in the final frame, and they made the Jets look like an elite passing team. They made "uncharacteristic mistakes" like fumbling with 2:00 minutes remaining in the game. Yeah, that's how we've been losing games, with so called uncharacteristic mistakes. These are beginning to look like characteristic mistakes. Still, The Patriots were able to make enough plays to win, and that's the difference.
Zones were just too loose
between LB Mayo and S Wilson

People should be encouraged by Brady's ability to lead a quick, aggressive drive from the 16 yard line to get into range for a game-tying 48 yard FG. It was very SB XXXVI. Brady gained a lot of yards on this drive, but the clock ran fast because he did his damage in the middle. Brady was aided by a penalty, but it was a legitimate call. Also, The Offense took a shot at the endzone, but Brandon Lloyd couldn't come up with it. The Offense may have only scored 3 in the 4th, but those 3 tied the game. Brady hit some tight windows, and managed the clock well. Luckily, Gostkowski put it away.

Seriously, Brandon Lloyd had a terrible game, his worst as a Patriot. The game-winning TD pass hit him in the chest (albeit in tight coverage). Also, he could not consistently win his battles against Kyle Wilson or Antonio Cromartie, so The Jets were able to act as if Revis wasn't on IR. The Jets Defense was pretty good at limiting Lloyd and the run game, so play action was largely a non-factor.

Most of Brady's success came with his TEs, but Welker made some of the biggest catches of the game. Brady made a few bad throws (including a near-pick by Cromartie covering Gronk), but overall he played a good game. The problem with the Offense is that The Patriots couldn't find the personnel grouping matchup that they wanted to exploit. At times the no-huddle caught The Jets on their heels, but for the most part The Jets were able to stop the run in their sub packages. 

The best group seemed to be the 2TE/2WR/1RB set, especially when they spread out The Jets base-D and passed. However, Ridley wasn't able to run for any considerable yardage when The Jets started using Nickel against it. I honestly think The Patriots would have been better served with more Shane Vereen in this one. I think he might be able to be the short-yardage threat that Woodhead just isn't. I shake my head every time Woodhead comes up short on a power play. Vereen ran well up the middle, and he flashed talent with route running and catching (unlike Ridley). Ridley missed a block on a flea-flicker, adding frustration to his lack of explosion.

I am concerned about The Offense because its so difficult to pin down their issues. The problems change from week to week, but Brady looked fine on his last two drives, even if he didn't get a TD to end it. The Offense only scored 20 points, and I am concerned about that, but I am happy that Brady was able to do what we've been criticizing him for not doing in previous games. Brady was 4/5 on the final drive of regulation, and his one incompletion could have been caught for a TD by Lloyd.

With the Defense it is much more simple. I've talked about how the pass rush needs to step up, and they did - 4 sacks, a safety, and a walk-off fumble recovery. It all about The DBs. Injuries play their part, but their problems are not limited to that. The problems are based on continuity and inexperience. McCourty started at Safety next to Wilson, and BB felt that the middle of the field was "more secured than in previous weeks." However, the zones between LBs and Ss were so big that Sanchez had a field day. Arrington was pretty bad on the outside (7 completions on 9 targets), and Dennard was hot and cold. I guess it can only get better, but as of now its pretty bad. 

Before I go too far with The Patriots DBs, I'd like to look at how The Patriots did with my 5 keys to victory. Although some areas are borderline, I think that we did pretty well. I'd say we nailed 2 of these, and we passed on 2 more for a 4/5 on the day.

1. Run More Than Pass - I don't want to take my meaning too literally here because there was some really good balance on Offense. I think they pass on this one even though the ratio ended with 42 pass  attempts and 32 rushes. Before The Jets reclaimed the lead, The Patriots had an even ratio of run:pass. The Patriots were forced to pass with the clock dwindling, and they continued to throw in OT. Still, New England established the run, and didn't give up on it. Shane Vereen was impressive, but Stevan Ridley struggled to run in obvious situations. The Jets Safeties were crashing down on the run, but Brandon Lloyd wasn't able to get free to make them pay on play-action.

2. Be Prepared For Tebow Time - I honestly thought that Tebow would be a bigger piece of The Jets gameplan. I am also surprised that The Jets didn't work any trickery on 4th down. Tebow was good for 3-4 yards every time, including a 3rd and 1 pick up near the goal line. Still, The Patriots Defense didn't get beat deep by any trick plays, and Tebow didn't break any long runs. Overall, they contained The Jets unconventional attack, putting pressure on Sanchez and Greene. Unfortunately for The Patriots, Sanchez and Greene had great days.

3. Score In The Red Zone - We did this, even if it feels like we wasted opportunities and field position. We wasted chances, but we did go 2/2 in the Red Zone. Gronkowski had 2 TDs in return-to-form fashion. He made an excellent diving over-the-shoulder catch on a 3rd down, and he outpaced LBs Harris and Pace to the outside for an easy TD. Most of the Patriots stalled drives came after a few first downs, but they made good on all of their TD and FG chances. Fortunately, those extra "wasted" first downs led to excellent punting by Mesko (4/6 inside the 20) and even resulted in 2 points from a Safety. The Offense may not have been lights-out, but they had success and made the most of their chances.

4. Don't Surrender A Non-Offensive TD - Not only did we not allow a TD to McKnight or Kerley, we got one from McCourty. This was a huge boost in a game were we needed all the help we could get (even if we didn't know it at the time). When McCourty scored, I thought The Patriots would start to pull away, but The Jets hung in. McKnight and did give them some really good returns, totaling 116 yards on 4 chances, with a long of 41 yards. Punt coverage was much better, and The Jets were often backed up after a punt. The Patriots scored 9 Non-Offensive points, and The Jets scored none. The Jets managed 3 points off a turnover, but forcing a FG there was actually a positive for The Patriots. Overall, we nailed this category.

5. Limit Big Plays On D - Here's where it gets ugly. The Patriots coverage downfield was just puzzling. Guys were so wide open sometimes. If Mark Sanchez didn't throw an awful INT and Stephen Hill doesn't drop a pass, then The Jets would have scored 30+ points. Mark Sanchez completed 68.2% of his passes, and many of those were 15+ yards downfield. Sanchez completed passes at a better rate than Brady's 61.9%. Crazy. The McCourty to Safety move was positive, but its not the answer. McCourty is not a Safety, and he and Arrington were consistently late in zone coverage. The zone coverage left receivers open for Sanchez all day. If he wasn't Mark Sanchez, this could have been really bad (if it wasn't already).

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