Monday Re-Watch @ Seattle
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| "Act like you've won one before..." |
This team is really on the ropes now, but a win at home against The Jets would make everything better again. Nevertheless, this team isn't going make the playoffs if they don't fix the mistakes that just keep killing them.
Fan complaints from all three losses seem to fall into three categories:
1. The secondary is awful because they don't turn to play the ball.
2. The play calling is obvious, suspect, and downright idiotic
3. They didn't show up in the fourth quarter
I think that all of these criticisms are valid, to a certain degree. Certainly all of these were true on Sunday. The secondary is what it is right now. They allowed Russell Wilson to double his season average in yards. To me, that's an obvious sign that the front 7 needs to be more aggressive. Seriously, blitz 'em 80% of the time because if the rush doesn't get there, it'll be a complete pass. Right now it feels like they blitz 10% of the time.
The play calling was terrible on both sides: 58 passing attempts during a driving rainstorm? Seriously, just kick FGs, run the ball in the Red Zone. It's a numbers game, if you ask Brady to throw too much, he will turn the ball over. Don't put your QB in a position where he has to be perfect, especially in 14 mph wind and rain. Also, they went with 5-WR too often, making themselves not only 1-dimensional, but totally predictable.
Defensively, the play calling was influenced primarily by the injuries in the secondary. The execution needs to get better, but maybe they should have called for cover-3 instead of cover-2 with Ebner and Wilson. Also, a few designed pressures worked against them, allowing Russell Wilson out of the pocket.
Finally, The Patriots didn't close this one out. Now they have 3 losses by a total of 4 points. They are 3 plays away from being 6-0, but here they sit at 3-3. Offensively, they couldn't get 3 points to extend the lead on 3 straight possessions. You can blame the playcalling, but I am looking at a bad day by Ridley and Brady. Defensively, as much as you may want to hate Belichick for not developing DBs, his players have let him down schematically. Cover-2 means don't let anybody behind you.
Still, it wasn't all about the DBs or about the coaches or the noise or the rain or the 4th quarter. The Patriots didn't execute on 3 out the 5 Keys to Victory that I set for them. 2 for 5 will never cut it in the NFL.
1. Stop Marshawn Lynch -Success. The Defense did this very well. Lynch had 15 carries 41yards and he only had 1 reception for 11 yards. Brandon Spikes made some great reads to stuff Lynch in the backfield. I am actually surprised he didn't force a fumble on one play were he got there as the ball was handed off.
2. Get Creative On Offense - Uh, not creative... 58 pass attempts. c'mon man. I would love to find the stats for formations, but I think that they used the Shotgun too much. The 5-WR gameplan doesn't work when Hernandez and Gronk are limited with injury and Danny Woodhead is your 3rd receiver. Stevan Ridley catching a pass would have been nice, but he dropped it. Overall, the stats were okay:
Hernandez had 6 rec for 30 yards and a TD, but it was clear that his explosiveness after the catch was limited. Gronk had some great catches in tight coverage, but he looks like he's in pain. Brandon Bolden was great in limited reps, but he left the game with an injury sustained on Special Teams. He had 6 carries for 28 yards. Ridley stunk up the joint with 16 carries for 34 yards (2.1 average). They were predictable, not creative: Ridley couldn't catch, and they didn't try to run with so many 5-WR sets. It would have been nice to see Hernandez get more time in the backfield, or at least something new.
3. They didn't show up in the fourth quarter
I think that all of these criticisms are valid, to a certain degree. Certainly all of these were true on Sunday. The secondary is what it is right now. They allowed Russell Wilson to double his season average in yards. To me, that's an obvious sign that the front 7 needs to be more aggressive. Seriously, blitz 'em 80% of the time because if the rush doesn't get there, it'll be a complete pass. Right now it feels like they blitz 10% of the time.
The play calling was terrible on both sides: 58 passing attempts during a driving rainstorm? Seriously, just kick FGs, run the ball in the Red Zone. It's a numbers game, if you ask Brady to throw too much, he will turn the ball over. Don't put your QB in a position where he has to be perfect, especially in 14 mph wind and rain. Also, they went with 5-WR too often, making themselves not only 1-dimensional, but totally predictable.
Defensively, the play calling was influenced primarily by the injuries in the secondary. The execution needs to get better, but maybe they should have called for cover-3 instead of cover-2 with Ebner and Wilson. Also, a few designed pressures worked against them, allowing Russell Wilson out of the pocket.
Finally, The Patriots didn't close this one out. Now they have 3 losses by a total of 4 points. They are 3 plays away from being 6-0, but here they sit at 3-3. Offensively, they couldn't get 3 points to extend the lead on 3 straight possessions. You can blame the playcalling, but I am looking at a bad day by Ridley and Brady. Defensively, as much as you may want to hate Belichick for not developing DBs, his players have let him down schematically. Cover-2 means don't let anybody behind you.
Still, it wasn't all about the DBs or about the coaches or the noise or the rain or the 4th quarter. The Patriots didn't execute on 3 out the 5 Keys to Victory that I set for them. 2 for 5 will never cut it in the NFL.
1. Stop Marshawn Lynch -Success. The Defense did this very well. Lynch had 15 carries 41yards and he only had 1 reception for 11 yards. Brandon Spikes made some great reads to stuff Lynch in the backfield. I am actually surprised he didn't force a fumble on one play were he got there as the ball was handed off.
2. Get Creative On Offense - Uh, not creative... 58 pass attempts. c'mon man. I would love to find the stats for formations, but I think that they used the Shotgun too much. The 5-WR gameplan doesn't work when Hernandez and Gronk are limited with injury and Danny Woodhead is your 3rd receiver. Stevan Ridley catching a pass would have been nice, but he dropped it. Overall, the stats were okay:
Hernandez had 6 rec for 30 yards and a TD, but it was clear that his explosiveness after the catch was limited. Gronk had some great catches in tight coverage, but he looks like he's in pain. Brandon Bolden was great in limited reps, but he left the game with an injury sustained on Special Teams. He had 6 carries for 28 yards. Ridley stunk up the joint with 16 carries for 34 yards (2.1 average). They were predictable, not creative: Ridley couldn't catch, and they didn't try to run with so many 5-WR sets. It would have been nice to see Hernandez get more time in the backfield, or at least something new.
3. Make Wilson A Pocket Passer - This was an epic fail. On all 3 of Seattle's 40+ yard plays, Russell Wilson extended the play because The Patriots DEs got pinched inside. The combination of Cunningham/Scott/Deaderick was not as reliable as Ninkovich has been at holding the edge. Ninkovich never quite got in a rhythm at LB, and the back-up DEs were suspect. As good as Chandler Jones' stat line looked, he fell prey to getting caught inside on the first of those 40+ yard plays. Wilson ended 16/27 for 293 yards and 3 TD rushing, adding 5 carries for 17 yards (converting a huge third down with his legs).
4. Field Position - This was closely contested, but in the critical moments they did not capitalize on their own field position while they let Seattle score after a big punt return. On Mesko's final punt, he had a net of 14 yards because of missed tackles. That was our chance to pin them deep and stop them on Defense, but instead it turned into the winning TD. Likewise, The Patriots couldn't capitalize on the botched punt snap. Bad clock management led to that squandered opportunity, and it looms large in retrospect.
5. Can Wes Welker Beat Jam? - Welker had a great game, 10 catches for 138 yards and a TD, his fourth straight with 100 yards. Also, with one more 10+ catch game, he'll tie Jerry Rice for most ever, 17. Welker has been Brady's most reliable target this season without a doubt. In this game, he made some huge 3rd down catches against press coverage, and he showed his toughness getting up from Browner's bit hit. Welker did everything I asked of him, and with a win he'd be the player of the game. Unfortunately, 2/5 in keys to victory doesn't get you a win.
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