These Bills, take 2

Last time The Patriots faced The Bills, Brady and company were down 21-7 in the 3rd quarter before they rattled off 35 unanswered points. After all was said and done, The Patriots won 52-28, and managed to put up 45 points in the 2nd half (31 in the 4th). Although the final score looks like a blowout, the earlier meeting between these teams was very competitive.

Steven Gostkowski missed 2 FGs in the first half. Likewise, Gronkowski and Welker lost fumbles in the first half. However, despite these miscues The Patriots kept the game close. The highlight of the 1st half was a potentially game-saving play by Brandon Spikes to force a fumble near the goal line to ruin a Bills' red zone trip.

The Patriots were without Mankins and Hernandez in that last contest. As a result, The Patriots struggled to get it going against The Bills' Nickel Defense during the first half. Even when The Patriots showed 2 TEs, The Bills Defended with Nickel personnel. Brady said after the game that The Bills were "challenging us to run," and run they did. However, it seemed like they didn't fully commit to the run until after halftime. The Patriots had had success through the air in the first half, but the Welker/Gronk fumbles forced the team to prioritize ball security by playing smashmouth football.

The Patriots finished with 247 yards rushing on the day, including 137 yards by Brandon Bolden. I think that Bills' coach Chan Gailey will want to revise his strategy after seeing his Nickel Defenses get torched by an undrafted free agent running behind an O-line that was missing it's best player. I'll be interested to see how Gailey tries to matchup with his Nickel packages, especially since he'll have to contend with Hernandez as the 2nd TE rather than Daniel Fells.

 

Stevie Johnson is not having a great year, but he's
still The Bills best WR by far.

This time around, The Patriots should be much healthier. The injury to Brandon Bolden might need more rest, but I have the gut feeling that both Hernandez and Mankins will be present for this one. Likewise, Edelman and Dennard (who missed last game) have returned to form. On the other side though, The Bills' C.J. Spiller should be closer to 100% than he was las time around.

This week we shouldn't count on Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing 4 INTs. Fitz is a gunslinger, but the better adjective to describe him last meeting was careless. The Bills squandered an early lead because they gave the ball away 6 times. The Bills Defense was playing pretty well, but The Patriots Offense was given too many opportunities on too many short fields. The Patriots will want to force turnovers, but don't expect 6 of them this game.

Overall, The Bills Defense came in with a good plan, but they left with a lot of question marks. Mark Anderson and Mario Williams were both held without a sack, and the team only managed to get to Brady once. Also, the most consistent pass rushers were Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams, not the guys on the ends that signed fat contracts. Although Mario Williams has started to get some production of late, this season has been a huge disappointment for him. The Bills thought they had fixed their problems on D, but the same issues keep coming back: they can't stop the run and they can't sack the QB.

I really don't see how The Bills can hope to win this game, and I usually give a lot of credit to opponents. However, I just think that The Patriots Offense is in a class above The Bills Defense. Last game I thought their new D-line would be tough to deal with, but they have proven to be soft, and easy to run against (~170 yds/game). Likewise, they can't pressure the QB like I thought they would, and The Patriots are better at protecting that I thought they would. The Patriots are at home, coming off a refreshing bye week. The Bills will be hard-pressed to compete the way the way they did in week 3.

If The Bills were unable to take advantage of The Patriots' slow start last time, then what evidence is there that The Bills will compete this time? Really, The Bills have not shown any consistency in recent weeks either. They failed to even score a TD against San Francisco and Houston, and they even dropped a close game to Tennessee. I expect The Patriots to take what the Defense gives them because The Bills just aren't talented enough to win the key battles. Likewise, The Bills Offense just doesn't have the consistency to keep up with Brady and the Offense. I expect this to be a rout, and I expect The Patriots to begin an epic 2nd half run to the playoffs, and the SuperBowl.