These Indy Colts

I think its fair to say that the most unlikely 6-3 team in the league is The Indianapolis Colts. Everyone had The Colts pegged for a rebuilding year under Andrew Luck. We expected Luck to have success as a Rookie, but there was a mass exodus of talent between 2011 and 2012. Peyton Manning was not the only loss to the team, and really the only names I remember are DE/OLB Freeney, DE/OLB Mathis, WR Wayne, LB Angerer, S Bethea, and RB Donald Brown. The Colts roster includes 16 Rookies and 2nd year players. Nevertheless, the Colts have been better than expected.

Andrew Luck has been absolutely stellar in some games, but he's fallen woefully short in others. He's had Rookie ups and downs, but he's making it work with only one legitimate weapon: Reggie Wayne. Wayne is actually on pace to have his best season ever (even better than the Manning years), and some of that is dependent on the absolute vaccum around him. The Colts running game is average at best, (~100 yds/g) but those numbers are bolstered by Luck's ability to scramble. Their offense really lacks a #1 RB, but they seem to be getting by with a committee approach.

Surrounding Reggie Wayne at WR are young players, Donnie Avery (38 rec. 519 yards) and T.Y. Hilton (24 rec. 355 yards). The stats are okay, but they have struggled with drops and miscommunications, and Luck has barely completed 50% of his targets to these guys. However, Luck has had solid production from his TEs Dwayne Allen (25 rec. 280 yards) and Coby Fleener (21 rec. 222 yards). Allen has been a nice surprise for the Rookie QB, who has completed 25 of 32 passes thrown that way.

Overall, The Colts are a dangerous offensive team that has a legitimate QB-WR combo in Luck-Wayne. The Colts running game is less than stellar, but they are managing to stay balanced enough to win 6 games. Unfortunately their strength of schedule has been pretty easy, but they do have a signature win over Green Bay. Luck threw for 360+ yards, and Aaron Rodgers only managed 235 yards (with 5 sacks).

Nobody is really talking about this Defense, but The Colts have a good defensive-minded coach in Bruce Arians (interim HC with Pagano undergoing treatment for Leukemia). Arians has institued different concepts (moving away from the Tampa-2) while moving toward schemes we associate with The Baltimore Ravens. Arians even brought Safety Tom Zbikowski over from Baltimore to ease the transition. So far, The Colts are only allowing 350 total yards per game, which is pretty decent considering this team almost didn't win a game last year.

Defensively, The Colts have changed a lot of things. First and foremost, they are running a lot more odd fronts with 3 men. Previously, The Colts employed even fronts with 4 men. Nowadays, Freeney and Mathis are looked at as OLBs rather than DEs. Think of Freeney as a Terrell Suggs-type rather than a traditional DE. Freeney and Mathis will certainly get after the QB, but Arians has them doing some things in coverage as well. I don't think that there's quite as much talent on the interior (as Baltimore) but I think the scheme has transitioned well.

The Colts are pretty thin at DT with McKinney on IR, but they are getting outstanding play from their LBs. In particular, LB Jerrell Freeman (a Rookie) has become a leader in the huddle. He currently leads the team in tackles with 79, and he's been effective going sideline to sideline. On the back end, The Colts will be without star CB Vontae Davis, but they've actually getting inspired play from ex-Pat Darius Butler, who leads the team in INTs.

Overall, The Colts have an underrated Defense that relies mostly on creative scheme and team speed. Bruce Arians is an excellent coach that has prepared for Tom Brady many times in his career. I expect The Colts to be ready to compete defensively because they have shown that they can disrupt the timing of an "elite QB" when they shut down Aaron Rodgers. I'm not scared, but I am axious to see how the Patriots will handle Freeney and Mathis in their new roles at LB. The key to the game might be Brady's ability to exploit them when they're not rushing the passer.

This is just a matchup of two good teams, but both teams are flawed. The Colts have good LBs, but they are weak on the interior defensive line. The Colts are mediocre in the secondary considering the injury to Davis. Offensively, they struggle to run the ball, and with Donald Jones limited in practice, they will certainly have trouble running against The Patriots front 7. Still, the key to this game will be to limit Reggie Wayne (double team), and keep Luck in the pocket. Andrew Luck is good at scrambling and extending the play, so The Patriots need watch out for big plays off bootlegs and scrambles. The Colts present some challenges, but The Patriots should be able to win this one provided they win the turnover battle.