A Look Back - A Look Ahead (Week 15)

Welcome to “A Look Back / A Look Ahead,” where we break down one play from the Pats’ most recent game and one play by the upcoming opponent. If you enjoy this breakdown, check out Dave's blog at http://davebreaksdownfilm.blogspot.com/

A Look Back - Tom Brady has a reputation for "taking what the defense gives him." That doesn't just mean dinking-and-dunking. If the opposing defense is taking away the short stuff, Brady is happy to sling the ball downfield. Brady proved that Monday, throwing deep on 37.1% of his pass attempts, by far his highest rate all year.

A great example came in the third quarter of Monday's game. Brady picked apart the Texans early in the game with short throws to Aaron Hernandez (#81) and Wes Welker (#83). Houston countered by bracketing both Welker and Hernandez. Safeties Danieal Manning (#38) and Quintin Demps (#27) show a cover-2 look, but they are double-covering Hernandez and Welker, respectively. This means Donte' Stallworth (#19) and Brandon Lloyd (#85) are just being covered one-on-one. Stallworth, running a go route, gets a step on cornerback Brandon Harris (#26), and also gets to his outside shoulder, away from any safety help and in a position where Harris can't look back for the ball. Brady makes a perfect throw and Stallworth hauls in a terrific catch and takes it all the way for a touchdown.

The respect Houston shows to Hernandez and Welker also helps the Patriots protect Tom Brady. The Texans just rush four, but they play a game with J.J. Watt (#99) shooting the B-gap between right tackle Sebastian Vollmer (#76) and guard Dan Connolly (#63) so end Whitney Mercilus (#59) can loop around behind. But with five receivers being covered with seven defensive backs, center Ryan Wendell (#62) doesn't have to worry about anyone blitzing. He picks up Mercilus easily, giving Brady plenty of time to hit Stallworth for the score.

 A Look Ahead - The offensive line got a test playing against Watt, Mercilus, and the rest of the Houston offensive line, and they're going to get another test Sunday night against San Francisco. Like Houston, the 49ers like to run stunts and other games to get their talented defensive linemen through unblocked, and they also have great players. 49ers second-year defensive end Aldon Smith leads the NFL in sacks with 19.5.  So why don't teams double-team Smith all the time?

I'm sure opposing teams would like to double Aldon Smith, but a) the 49ers have other talented players up front, and b) San Francisco doesn't always let them. Here's one example. Smith (#99) is lined up wide of rookie left tackle Jonathan Martin (#71), while fellow D-lineman Justin Smith (#94) is lined up directly across from Martin.  Martin has to take a healthy drop back and to his left to pick up Aldon Smith, while left guard Richie Incognito (#68) has to do the same to pick up Justin Smith. There's just no way the Dolphins can double-team Aldon Smith from this look. It's a mismatch against a rookie tackle, and Smith absolutely steamrolls him - you can see Martin on the ground in the broadcast shot - and sacks Ryan Tannehill.

How can the Patriots counter this? One thing to notice is that the San Francisco defensive line is really spread, with no one over the center or either guard. That leaves them ripe for a run up the middle, but with no back in the backfield the 49ers are unconcerned. San Fran has a great run defense, but the Pats will have to make them respect the run if they don't want it to be open season on Tom Brady. But undoubtedly the Patriots' offensive linemen are going to find themselves in one-on-one matchups with "The Smith Brothers," and they're going to have to win more of those matchups than Miami did to succeed Sunday night.