Playbook - Welker and Hernandez vs. Miami
Last time we faced Miami, Wes Welker had 12 receptions for 103 yards and a TD. He accounted for nearly half of Brady's 238 yards. Aaron Hernandez also had a nice game, producing 97 yards on 8 catches. Clearly not much else was working for The Patriots in week 13, but let's analyze why Welker and Hernandez had so much success.
As you can see The Patriots are in 12 personnel, and The Dolphins are in Nickel. LB #58 Karlos Dansby splits out wide to cover RB #34 Shane Vereen after he motions out of the backfield. Welker and Edelman draw coverage from CBs #23 Bryan McCann and #24 Sean Smith. Likewise, #86 Daniel Fells is covered by a CB, #25 RJ Stanford. This means Hernandez is paired up against a LB, who is all alone in the middle of the field.
Both Welker and Hernandez are lined up close to the offensive Tackle which does two things. First of all, this positioning forces a wider angle by the pass rushers. Also, it gives Welker and Hernandez a free release to the inside, and that first step forces #23 McCann to over-pursue. Welker beats him easily with the inside-out catch-and-run for 14 yards.
Hernandez makes a few moves on the LB #56 Kevin Burnett, but overall Burnett plays it well. Still, 7 times out of 10, Hernandez will get open against this coverage. If Miami thinks that they can play man-to-man against Welker and Hernandez, they had better rethink their gameplan. Last time around, Miami held The Patriots to 23 points, but the little catch-and-run plays were enough to hurt them.
This time, I expect The Patriots to put more emphasis on spreading the field with their 12 personnel, just like they do here. Brady is at his best when making quick decisions, and this formation allows him to do so. If Miami chooses to cover our RBs out wide with their LBs, then it opens up a lot of space in the middle for Welker and Hernandez. If Miami brings a Safety down into the box, Brady can attack vertically. If Miami matches up a CB on Vereen, then it makes the coverage predictable to one side.
Overall, Miami does not have a base defense that can match-up against our 12 personnel packages, so I expect this to be the focus of our gameplan moving forward. Our quick interior passing should force them into Nickel packages, and that should open up the screen pass/running game for Vereen and Woodhead. Merry Christmas everyone!
Both Welker and Hernandez are lined up close to the offensive Tackle which does two things. First of all, this positioning forces a wider angle by the pass rushers. Also, it gives Welker and Hernandez a free release to the inside, and that first step forces #23 McCann to over-pursue. Welker beats him easily with the inside-out catch-and-run for 14 yards.
Hernandez makes a few moves on the LB #56 Kevin Burnett, but overall Burnett plays it well. Still, 7 times out of 10, Hernandez will get open against this coverage. If Miami thinks that they can play man-to-man against Welker and Hernandez, they had better rethink their gameplan. Last time around, Miami held The Patriots to 23 points, but the little catch-and-run plays were enough to hurt them.
This time, I expect The Patriots to put more emphasis on spreading the field with their 12 personnel, just like they do here. Brady is at his best when making quick decisions, and this formation allows him to do so. If Miami chooses to cover our RBs out wide with their LBs, then it opens up a lot of space in the middle for Welker and Hernandez. If Miami brings a Safety down into the box, Brady can attack vertically. If Miami matches up a CB on Vereen, then it makes the coverage predictable to one side.
Overall, Miami does not have a base defense that can match-up against our 12 personnel packages, so I expect this to be the focus of our gameplan moving forward. Our quick interior passing should force them into Nickel packages, and that should open up the screen pass/running game for Vereen and Woodhead. Merry Christmas everyone!
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