Stats Are For Losers - Houston

The real NFL season starts in December, and goes through February. The games get bigger, and wins are harder to come by. When The Patriots face The Houston Texans this Monday night, the stakes will be high. Undoubtedly, this is the most important game for deciding the #1 and #2 seeds in the AFC. A loss for New England would all but lock-in Houston as the top seed.

When looking at this chart of stats, its obvious that this will be a closely contested match. Each team's offense is roughly 10% points better than their own defense on 3rd downs. It's actually pretty astonishing how good Houston's defensive numbers are, but their offensive numbers are still trailing New England.

I am blown away by the 36 to 15 sack ratio posted by Houston so far this season. Likewise, I am impressed by the Houston's defense holding teams to a 53% completion rate. Overall, I think the numbers are tilted slightly in Houston's favor because Houston's offensive numbers are at least competitive with New England's, but its obvious that Houston has the better defense.

The best chance The Patriots have is to force Schaub into turnovers. The Patriots Defense is the superior unit at forcing turnovers, and Schaub is more susceptible to mistakes than his counterpart, Brady. Likewise, it will be very important to score TDs in the red zone because chances will be limited. When opportunities abound, The Pats need to capitalize. This also means The Patriots need to fall on loose balls. The Pats are forcing more than twice as many fumbles as Houston, but forcing a fumble and recovering it are two different things.

Overall, this is going to be a close game. Houston seems to have a more balanced team, but New England takes better care of the ball. The game will be decided by a handful of plays, and it will be paramount to be the better team in those critical moments.