Stats Are For Losers - Phins

As you can see from the chart, The Patriots are the heavy favorite. Although Miami enjoys a distinct and considerable advantage in many defensive categories, New England makes up for it with turnovers. Moreover, Miami's offense is noticeably more clumsy with the football than Brady and company.

In addition, The Patriots boast an amazing 53% conversion rate on 3rd down, and that gives the team an 8% differential between the offense and defense. Miami's defense might hold teams to under 35% on 3rd down, but they have allowed teams to convert 9 of 10 4th down tries. Also, Miami has allowed more first downs than they have created. The Pats have 60 more first downs than they've given up.

Miami's Defense is pretty good, but they are not quite good enough to carry the team. The time of possession and turnovers tell me that Miami's Defense is on the field a lot, even if they are able to get off on 3rd down. Tannehill's turnovers have defined the Dolphins, and The Patriots are notoriously good at taking the ball away.

This almost seems like a recipe for change, and I supposed its worth mentioning that Tom Brady is 0-3 playing in Miami during the month of December. Although the stats (and my gut) go pretty strongly in favor of The Pats, I am not underestimating The Dolphins ability to make it tough on Stevan Ridley. I also worry about the rookie QB curse vs The Patriots, but honestly I haven't felt this confident about the secondary in a while. It all looks good, and that's why I am feeling weary...

I think it will be important to play conservative early to play clean and outlast a team that is more prone to mistakes. Let Tannehill get some yards, but hit him enough to force an error or two. That's the formula against The Dolphins.