These Houston Texans...

The week is finally here. Texans week. Monday Night Football between the two top teams in the AFC. It just doesn't get any better than this. This is the week where The Patriots can finally establish themselves as the team to beat. OR The Texans can make their claim to the top more legitimate. Up until now, the experts have deferred judgment of The Patriots. Up until now, the media has pumped air into Houston's tires. However, when game time arrives, the experts will be tucked away in press boxes while the players decide the fate of the news.


Although his face is not in this lineup, the first word on The Texans (no matter who you ask) is J.J. Watt. Watt is one of those very few defensive players that scare me when I sit on the couch. I can only imagine the challenge that awaits Brady, who needs to look into his eyes. J.J. Watt is a special kind of player, but the most familiar and accurate comparison I can make is (vintage) Richard Seymour.

Watt and Seymour both play 5-technique as 3-4 DEs, and both players can generate pressure on the QB. Traditionally 3-4 ends are run stuffers, and the 3-4 OLBs are the pass rushers. J.J. Watt has an amazing 15.5 sacks, an impressive 49 tackles, and a mind-boggling 15 passes defended. Watt is putting up sack numbers like a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB. Likewise, he is nearly leading the team in tackles from a very limited position. Still, the most impressive thing is that his number of tipped passes would be good if he was a DB. In my opinion, we should just run every play away from Watt. Brady really needs to be aware of his location at all times so that he doesn't try to throw over his head and get a tipped ball INT.

Other than Watt, The Texans Defense has some nice players. Rookie Whitney Mercilus has contributed 5 sacks off the edge. Likewise, Connor Barwin brings some speed and athleticism to the strong side. Still, The Texans will be without Brian Cushing and Brooks Reed in their linebacking corps. Nevertheless, The Texans strength is in the front 7. Daniael Manning and Glover Quin hold down the back end, but they've been exploited a bit in recent weeks. Teams have started to break more 20+ yard plays on this Texans Defense, especially in the last 3 weeks. The problem here is: how are The Pats going to make those 20+ yard plays happen? Who is the deep threat?

Offensively, The Texans are an extremely balanced team that relies on zone-blocking runs and play action passes. Matt Schaub is a second tier QB, but he's plenty capable of sustaining drives. Schaub may not be considered "Elite" but he is getting it done to the tune of an 11-1 record. He is not the kind of QB that will inevitably make a mistake. Rather, Schaub needs to be forced into his errors by taking away easy throws with disguised coverages. Schaub really likes to utilize bootlegs off play-action because he's very good at throwing on the run.

The Patriots will need to find a way to match-up in man-to-man against Andre Johnson and all the Texans WRs for that matter. Since Houston runs so much play action, the best way to stop it is with tight man-to-man coverage. Schaub's bootlegs are notorious for beating zone defenses. Schaub's skill set is good against zone D, and Andre Johnson is virtually un-coverable in man-to-man. Obviously this creates a predicament for the Defense, and its my feeling that Belichick will mix coverages throughout the game. Still, I am pretty sure that Andre Johnson will get the CB-S double team all day.

The Patriots will have to contend with the catching ability of TE Owen Daniels and RB Arian Foster, but they should be most concerned with Johnson. If there is one thing that The Texans' offense is lacking, it is a complimentary WR. Johnson is still having a great year despite seeing lots of double teams, so I wouldn't just assume that the double team will be effective. Belichick might have to do something new and special, but the lion's share of the responsibility with fall to Dennard, Talib, McCourty, and Gregory.

Don't think that I have forgotten about Arian Foster. I just don't know what else to say about him that hasn't been said elsewhere. Foster has had a lot of success as a one-cut runner in a zone blocking scheme because he's got great acceleration. He's got great blockers in front of him, but he gets a lot of yards by being decisive. Foster doesn't dance around looking for a hole. He forces a lot missed tackles with straight-ahead running because arm tackles do not work. Likewise, Foster is really good at sneaking out the back door when the lane doesn't open for him. The Patriot defenders need to gang-tackle and also the edge players need to be disciplined on the back side.

Overall, games like these just come down to execution. Both teams are banged up. Both teams are SB contenders. Both teams badly want to win. Therefore, it just comes down to who plays best on the field. All this talk is useless though, I can't wait for Monday night!

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