A Look at Potential Opponents

Since the Patriots' next opponent is yet to be determined, we'll take a look at the three potential opponents instead of our normal "A Look Back - A Look Ahead" segment. If you enjoy this breakdown, check out Dave's blog at http://davebreaksdownfilm.blogspot.com/

The Patriots clinched a bye last week with their win over Miami and Houston's loss to Indianapolis. This weekend's wild-card games will determine their first playoff opponent, but that uncertainty doesn't mean the Patriots can't prepare - in fact, they've already played Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Houston, the three teams they could possibly face. Let's look at a representative play from each of the regular-season showdowns.

Baltimore Ravens - the Ravens decimated the Patriots' secondary with deep passes in their week 3 matchup, as quarterback Joe Flacco completed 28 of 39 passes for 382 yards and 3 TDs. Unsurprisingly, the secondary struggles were matched by an ineffective pass rush, as the Pats did not register a sack for the only time this year.

Cornerback Devin McCourty had his worst stretch of the season in the fourth quarter, and this capped off his frustrating day. Baltimore comes out in a shotgun on 3rd-and-9, but they don't just look to pick up the first down. They send both outside receivers deep. The Pats are in dime personnel with man-free coverage, with Steve Gregory (#28) the deep safety. Wide receiver Jacoby Jones (#12) is split out right and takes a step outside before shooting straight upfield. He beats McCourty (#32), who is unable to catch up to Jones and re-route him towards his safety help up the middle. The pass is underthrown, but McCourty interferes with Jones as he races to catch up.


In the end zone shot we can see a vanilla four-man rush from the Patriots and a clean pocket for Flacco. One point of note is Jerod Mayo (#51) in a shallow zone in the middle of the field. With 5 defenders in man coverage, 1 deep safety, and 4 rushers, the Pats have one extra man in Mayo, but he is a non-factor. This might be the Pats being overly conservative, but we have to consider Baltimore RB Ray Rice (#27), who is a great pass-catching back. New England might have been concerned about Rice beating dimeback Tavon Wilson (#27) to the inside and wanted Mayo to stay at home to help as needed. Both the pass rush and coverage will need to improve if the Pats face the Ravens again.

Indianapolis Colts - Colts quarterback Andrew Luck was the first pick in the April draft after a stellar college career, and he's led Indy to an 11-5 record while throwing for 23 TDs and 4,374 yards, a rookie record. However, he's shown some rookie growing pains, tossing 18 interceptions, three in his week 11 matchup versus the Patriots.


This play sealed the win for the Patriots. On first down, already in field goal range, the Colts come out in their base set, with 2 backs and 1 TE. The Pats counter with base personnel, but they run cover-4 coverage, a good scheme to counter Indy's long-passing attack. Luck targets go-to receiver Reggie Wayne (#87) on an out route, but the throw is late and behind Wayne. One of the strengths of the cover-4 is the corners can be aggressive on out routes, since there are two safeties in the middle. Corner Alfonzo Dennard (#37) breaks well on the ball and takes it back all the way for a touchdown. Luck made a bad throw, but he also made the wrong read for the defense, and Dennard made him pay.

Houston Texans - in their Monday Night showdown, the Texans ran the ball 27 times for 100 yards, but those numbers don't show the effectiveness of the Patriots' run D. Lead back Arian Foster toted the rock 15 times for just 46 yards, and after a 15-yard run on the first play of the game, Foster's long run was 9 yards. The Texans famously run a zone-blocking scheme that cut-blocks the backside pursuit, leading to big plays when defenses over-pursue and the running back cuts the run back. On this play, we can see the Patriots aggressively attacking the backside, sealing off the cutback.

Here's the play, a designed run up the middle (red arrow) with a potential cutback (yellow arrow). The Patriots have seven men in the box and there are seven blockers, which is good math for Houston. However, Jerod Mayo (#51) blitzes at the snap and bowls over right tackle Ryan Harris (#68), ruining the play.

Here's Foster (#23) at the decision point. Left tackle Duane Brown (#76) doesn't get much of Dont'a Hightower (#54), who is in good position to tackle Foster on the run up the middle. Meanwhile Foster can see that right guard Brandon Brooks (#79) and fullback James Casey (#86) have sealed off the backside pursuit, making the cutback lane appealing. In the middle of everything, however, is Mayo on top of Harris. Mayo shoved him all the way from a yard or two outside the hash mark to a yard or two inside, and flattened him. Foster can't get around the big bodies on the ground, and Mayo makes the tackle for no gain. Foster probably would have been better-served shooting up the middle for a couple yards, but Mayo's aggression and physicality eliminated the big-play cutback that Houston's offense thrives on.