A Look Back - A Look Ahead (AFC Championship Game)

Welcome to “A Look Back / A Look Ahead,” where we break down one play from the Pats’ most recent game and one play by the upcoming opponent. If you enjoy this breakdown, check out Dave's blog at http://davebreaksdownfilm.blogspot.com/

A Look Back - On just the seventh offensive play Sunday, Patriots star tight end Rob Gronkowski re-injured his forearm and was lost for the season diving for a pass along the right sideline. But the play was notable for more than Gronk's injury. Throughout the game, New England attacked the sidelines with players who typically prowl the middle of the field; that unfortunate incompletion belied the strategy's effectiveness through the rest of the game.

One positive example came early in the fourth quarter. The Pats use their typical "12" personnel, but instead of lining up with a back in the backfield and the tight ends tight, they split RB Shane Vereen (#34) wide left, with TE Aaron Hernandez (#81) in the left slot. Wide receivers Brandon Lloyd (#85) and Wes Welker (#83) are both right.

The "book" on the Patriots is to play man coverage to limit quarterback Tom Brady's pre-snap reads, but here we see the Pats taking advantage. Vereen matches up with linebacker Barrett Ruud (#54), who is not fast enough to stay with him. But Hernandez draws safety Danieal Manning (#38), so there is no help to be had on the left side of the field. The Texans could have rotated deep man Glover Quin (#29) over, but then corners Kareem Jackson (#25) and Johnathan Joseph (#24) would have had to defend Welker and Lloyd on a combination route with no safety help. It's a clever way to guarantee a good matchup against man coverage.

The Texans blitz but the Pats pick it up long enough for Brady to hit Vereen with a beautiful pass. The 33-yard touchdown makes it 38-13 and is the nail in the coffin for Houston.

A Look Ahead - Of course, the Patriots aren't the only team that works to get favorable one-on-one matchups so they can throw deep. The Ravens can bomb it out with anybody, as Pats fans remember from their week 3 showdown. Wideout Torrey Smith leads the charge, with 12 catches this year of 25 yards or more. It's easy to say that defenses should provide safety help on Smith, but Baltimore has ways of making that difficult.

One key is the Ravens' receiving tight ends, Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson. Here Pitta (#88) lines up in the slot right, with Smith (#82) out wide. The Broncos have linebacker D.J. Williams (#55) on Pitta, which is a mismatch. Safety Mike Adams (#20) has to be in position to help Williams, so when Smith makes a move to the outside and sprints down the sideline, Adams can't give any help to cornerback Champ Bailey (#24). Bailey's on his own.

Bailey actually does a pretty good job staying with Smith, staying between him and the goal line, but Smith's move to the outside means Bailey can't look back at Ravens QB Joe Flacco without losing sight of Smith. Flacco underthrows the pass and Smith reacts to it quicker than Bailey, hauling it in for a 32-yard score just before halftime.

The Patriots will undoubtedly want to shade over some safety help to limit Smith's big play ability, but the Ravens have ways of getting the matchups they want. Ultimately, the Patriots' corners will have to make plays one-on-one to shut down Baltimore's deep attack.