Monday Re-Watch @ Buffalo

The cut-off sleeves return to glory...

Every Monday, win, lose or draw, I go back and take a second look at the game. I do my best to separate the passions of Sunday from the retrospect of Monday. Looking back, its obvious to see how dominant The Patriots were in this game. Pats Nation was nervous in the second quarter and early in the third, but Buffalo only had a lead because The Pats made it easy on them with miscues.

The Patriots had been winning the field position battle handily, downing a couple punts deep in Buffalo territory, including a nice play by Cole and Slater to pin Fitzpatrick at the 1 yard line. Buffalo was backed up, and Fitzpatrick threw deep on 3rd down, only to be picked off by McCourty who got his head around and made a nice catch. Despite all this good fortune, The Patriots could not capitalize on 2 Buffalo turnovers (going 3 and out and missing a FG). 

On the other side, Buffalo capitalized on Gronkowski's fumble on the very next play. However, The Patriots Defense may have saved the game following Welker's fumble. Buffalo looked poised to take a 21-7 lead before halftime, but Brandon Spikes jarred the ball loose. The sound it made tells me C.J. Spiller's shoulder will probably be sore again this week.

In the second half, The Patriots started slow, unable to convert on another 3rd down. The first drive of the third quarter stalled out on a tipped ball on 3rd and 8. This failed conversion put The Patriots at 1 for 6 on the day. As you may remember, 3rd down was one of my keys to victory. There was no mystery as to what was going wrong. Brady and company just could convert. The failed 3rd down plays included 2 incompletions to Lloyd, a checkdown short to Woodhead, Ridley coming up a few inches short, and a tipped pass. The only conversion was a pass over the middle to Lloyd. Still, despite this inefficiency, the score was only 14-7 Buffalo. Also, it could have been 14-13 with some made FGs.

Crunch time didn't really start until Buffalo scored its third TD. The first play of this drive looked good, Brandon Spikes made a nice play on the ball to stop Scott Chandler from wreaking havoc down the middle (again). After that, things fell apart. The Patriots allowed the Bills to convert a 3rd and 15 on a screen pass to Jackson. Then, Fitzpatrick found Donald Jones in the middle, who took it for 68 yards and a TD. This was the low point of the game because Chung and Gregory were victimized for a 3rd time, and it was not looking pretty. Arrington did concede a step to Jones, but Chung should have made this play with a better angle. Likewise, Gregory got juked and turned around completely. 

All of a sudden, The Patriots Offense started clicking, scoring 5 consecutive TDs. Also, the Defense made 4 consecutive stops, including 2 takeaways, a 3-and-out, and 1 quick first down followed by a 3-and-out. The Patriots just pounded it down The Bills' throats with Bolden and Ridley. However, many of The Patriots passing plays were conducted with an empty backfield. Often you could see Brandon Bolden or Stevan Ridley split out wide, Bolden even caught a pass for 11 yards.

In addition to the effective running game, Wes Welker started to take over. He simply could not be covered on the out-route from the slot. It seemed like every drive gained a boost from a big catch by Welker. Brady stopped trying to force it to Lloyd (as he did in the first half). Instead, Brady acknowledged that Stephon Gilmore is pretty solid in man-to-man, and looked for greener pastures.  It is worth noting that despite the success of the running game, Brady did not do much with play-action. This was just point and shoot: Brady to Gronk and Welker. This was complimented by tosses and sprint draws to Bolden and Ridley to the tune of over 200 yards.

Really, there was so much scoring in this one that I could go on all day, but I want to check out how The Pats did with my 5 keys to victory:

1. Show Up for the 4th Quarter - I think we can check this off as a great success. The Offense scored 31 points in the 4th, and the D only allowed 7. The Defense gave up quite a few yards in a prevent Defense, but overall they dominated the final quarter in all three phases.

2. Make it Work with Ridley - Overall, I was more impressed with Brandon Bolden, but Ridley still ran for 106 yards and 2 TDs. As I noted in an article last week, Ridley gets more attention from Defenses, and he sees more LBs in the game to oppose him. Bolden showed the ability to catch from out wide, and Buffalo often played Nickel against him. Bolden made the most of a favorable matchup, but Ridley made it work against the base D. 

3. Sub Defenses Need To Be Ready - Overall, The Patriots were in the Nickel less than I imagined, and especially in the first half. Originally, Brandon Spikes was covering Scott Chandler, and he was burned twice (with little help from the Safeties). However, in the second half, we saw a bit more of Tavon Wilson on Chandler, and Chandler pretty much disappeared. Also, Sterling Moore held up well  on the outside when called upon. The Pass D was weak over the middle, but Wilson gave us some really good reps as a third Safety.

4. 3rd Down - As I explained earlier, The Patriots were dismal on 3rd down in the first half. Buffalo finished the game 8 for 15, and New England went 4 for 11. Overall, The Patriots did not win this battle, but luckily they improved enough as the game progressed. Still, this game was very competitive for 3 quarters because New England couldn't covert, and Buffalo could. The game didn't really turn around until the Defense started getting stops.

5. Brady to Lloyd - I thought that Brandon Lloyd would torch Stephon Gilmore with his savvy veteran route running, but I was wrong. Lloyd did manage to snag a TD late, but for most of the game, Lloyd was covered. Gilmore showed some raw technique, but great recovery skills on a number of plays. 

All in all, The Patriots played very well on Sunday. The team did not do as well on 3rd down as they would like, but managed to perform very well in the 4th quarter. Also, once the running game got moving, The Patriots hardly ever faced 3rd downs. The Offense was not able to exploit the one-on-one matchup that Brady looked for in the first half (Lloyd), but the coaches made the correct adjustments to find the correct plan of attack. You've gotta credit the O-line for stepping up without Mankins and the Defense for forcing 6 turnovers. This may not have been a 60 minute effort, but the team overcame a lot of adversity to win in convincing fashion. Bring on the Denver Peyton Mannings...I mean, Broncos.