Keys To Victory - Miami

He's the key every week, but maybe he just needs
to be a bit more conservative?

Each week there is a new gameplan, a new formula for victory. Each week certain aspects of the game just loom larger than the rest. The idea is not to divine the course of the contest, but to highlight the match-ups and intangibles that I'll have my eye on during the broadcast.

1. Turn Back Into Tom Terrific - As I've noted HERE in my weekly nepatriotslife.com article, I think that Tom Brady has been a bit too aggressive with the ball. He has thrown 5 picks since the start of the December 2nd game in Miami, and in my opinion, 4 of them are his fault. His 2 INTs in the Jaguar game came on an underthrow (Ridley) and a miscommunication (Lloyd). Against San Fran, Aldon Smith grabbed a lucky bounce, but the Carlos Rogers/Wes Welker INT was an ill-advised throw into double coverage. Finally, Brady underestimated the range of Miami Safety Reshad Jones in THIS PLAY. Miami really played us tough last time, and Tom had pedestrian numbers. He needs to kick-start a hot streak this week as he gets Gronk back in uniform.

2. Red Zone Defense - When Bill Belichick faces young QBs like Ryan Tannehill, he usually plays a conservative coverage that allows lots of passing yards. He does this under the principle that mistakes are magnified near the goal line. The Patriots lead the league in forced red zone turnovers, and not all of them are as lucky the 2 INTs last week by Pat Chung. Belichick is going to dare Ryan Tannehill to convert his red zone chances and his 3rd and mediums, and as long as Tom Brady can be better on the other side, we should win. Based on The STATS, The Patriots are pretty good at staying one step ahead of their defense.

Welker had 12 catches last game...no big deal

3. Welker/Hernandez Inside Passing Game - I highlighted the importance of splitting a RB out wide in a couple of posts this week: on offense and on defense. I expect to see The Patriots try a spread-em-out approach with their 12 personnel. By splitting a RB out wide, Brady opens up lots of space between the hashmarks for Welker and Hernandez to use in their runs after the catch. Miami was pretty stout against the run last time around, so it might be better to just throw the ball. Maybe some early success can force a personnel change to make it more favorable to run, which would be nice for Brady's shoulder heading into the postseason. 

4. Offensive Line Cohesion - Let's face it, I don't need a link to an article to illustrate that the O-line has struggled. They allowed 9 QB hits last week to a team that has been notoriously bad at pressuring the QB. Miami was tough enough to handle when we all thought this unit was playing well. Honestly, if there is one unit of this team that needs to wake up its the O-line. Still, they've had stretches of dominance this year, so that gives me hope moving forward.

5. Pass Rush Revival - Its always a tricky business asking Rookies to step up, but Hightower and Jones need to be at the head of this charge. Trevor Scott's edge rush is not going to carry us, even if he produced in Miami last game. Rob Ninkovich and Vince Wilfork have done some nice things with crosses and other creative blitzes, but at the moment, the pressure is not getting home. Dont'a Hightower has been rushing off the edge more lately, and I am not sure it is working. However, this could be the week where it all comes together again. We just need to get production off both edges, and right now its not consistent enough. We need to go out there and build on our 3 sack performance earlier in December. We need a catalyst for this unit heading into January.